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We Think Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲德文能源(紐約證券交易所代碼:DVN)可以繼續償還債務
Simply Wall St ·  05/06 07:43

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

大衛·伊本說得好,他說:“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們注意到,德文能源公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:DVN)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時危險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務可以成爲企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Devon Energy's Debt?

德文能源的債務是什麼?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Devon Energy had US$6.15b of debt in March 2024, down from US$6.42b, one year before. However, it also had US$1.13b in cash, and so its net debt is US$5.02b.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示德文能源在2024年3月的債務爲61.5億美元,低於一年前的64.2億美元。但是,它也有11.3億美元的現金,因此其淨負債爲50.2億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:DVN Debt to Equity History May 6th 2024
紐約證券交易所:DVN 債務與股本比率歷史記錄 2024 年 5 月 6 日

A Look At Devon Energy's Liabilities

看看德文能源的負債

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Devon Energy had liabilities of US$3.27b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$9.37b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.13b as well as receivables valued at US$1.67b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$9.84b.

我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,德文能源的負債爲32.7億美元,一年後到期的負債爲93.7億美元。除這些債務外,它有11.3億美元的現金以及價值16.7億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額98.4億美元。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Devon Energy has a huge market capitalization of US$32.0b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

儘管這可能看起來很多,但還不錯,因爲德文能源的市值高達320億美元,因此如果需要,它可能會通過籌集資金來加強其資產負債表。但是,仍然值得仔細研究其償還債務的能力。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Devon Energy's net debt is only 0.70 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.3 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In fact Devon Energy's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 44% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Devon Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

德文能源的淨負債僅爲其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的0.70倍。其息稅前利潤高達14.3倍的利息支出。因此,我們對它超保守的債務使用相當放鬆。實際上,德文能源的儲蓄之處在於其低債務水平,因爲其息稅前利潤在過去十二個月中下降了44%。收益下降(如果這種趨勢持續下去)最終也可能使即使是微不足道的債務也相當危險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益將決定德文能源未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Devon Energy recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在最近三年中,德文能源公司的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的57%,鑑於自由現金流不包括利息和稅收,這幾乎是正常的。這種自由現金流使公司處於有利地位,可以在適當的時候償還債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Based on what we've seen Devon Energy is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Devon Energy's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Devon Energy (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

根據我們所見,鑑於其息稅前利潤增長率,德文能源公司並不容易,但我們考慮的其他因素使我們有理由感到樂觀。毫無疑問,它用息稅前利潤支付利息支出的能力相當閃爍。當我們考慮上述所有因素時,我們對德文能源的債務使用確實有些謹慎。儘管我們意識到債務可以提高股本回報率,但我們建議股東密切關注其債務水平,以免債務增加。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。爲此,你應該了解我們在德文能源公司發現的3個警告信號(包括一個不容忽視的警告)。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼請立即查看我們的獨家淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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