On Friday (May 3), although US employment data was unexpectedly weaker than expected, gold fell to a one-month low on Friday as investors continued to make profitable trade adjustments, continuing the correction trend entered after last month's sharp rise. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,300.38 an ounce on the same day, falling for the second week in a row. The intraday low hit a one-month low of $2,277.19 per ounce.

Source: Yi Huitong

Data from the US on Friday showed that 175,000 new jobs were added in the US in April, lower than the 243,000 expected by economists. Salaries increased 3.9% year over year in April, below expectations of 4.0%, and the increase in March was 4.1%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, but remained below 4% for the 27th consecutive month. Employment growth showed coolness in April, and the year-on-year wage increase also declined, prompting the market to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, putting some pressure on the US dollar. However, voices from key Federal Reserve officials believe that the data only shows that the labor market has loosened; it does not indicate a sharp decline in the economy. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman also said on Friday that even if the Federal Reserve maintains the target interest rate at the current level, inflation should continue to fall, while reaffirming that she is willing to raise the policy interest rate if the progress of inflation slows down or reverses. Chicago Federal Reserve President Goulsby also said that the employment report showed “steady” growth, but the growth rate is slowing down, which may make Fed officials more confident that the economy is not overheating. Therefore, unless the trend of non-agricultural agriculture continues on Friday, the report itself is unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve's policy changes. Gold not only failed to rise sharply after the publication of a balanced and favorable employment report, but instead attracted a significant return in profits, which indicates that bulls are becoming more cautious after experiencing a significant rise in April. Because, although employment data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year, it has instead prompted investors to switch to riskier assets (such as the stock market). As a result, gold does not appear to be the preferred investment product. Gold is currently still under pressure to adjust profits.

On a technical level, on the daily level chart, the price of gold has fluctuated slightly in recent days. Overall, it has remained below the middle line of the Bollinger band channel. The technical indicator MACD signal line has remained at the bottom. RSI has also tried to move downward through the equilibrium line, indicating that the short-term downward adjustment trend of gold has not improved significantly. Currently, the upper 2325-2330 price area is critical. It has not been able to stand here even if it has gone up several times last week. I'm afraid it will form a long and empty watershed in the above price area. If the price of gold remains below the above price, I'm afraid gold will continue to experience a period of downward adjustment.

Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang

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