The subdued market reaction suggests that Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech. Co. Ltd's (SZSE:001379) recent earnings didn't contain any surprises. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.
Zooming In On Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to March 2024, Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech recorded an accrual ratio of 0.48. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥128m despite its profit of CN¥72.7m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech generated positive FCF of CN¥172m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
On top of the noteworthy accrual ratio and the spike in non-operating revenue, we can also see that Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by CN¥30m in the last twelve months. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
Our Take On Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech's Profit Performance
Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech saw unusual items weigh on its profit, which should have made it easier to show high cash conversion, which it did not do, according to its accrual ratio. Having considered these factors, we don't think Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. If you'd like to know more about Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that Shandong Tengda Fasten Tech has 2 warning signs (1 is potentially serious!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.