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直击奥马哈|陈凯丰:美股投资“天空才是极限”

Direct attack on Omaha | Chen Kaifeng: “The sky is the limit” for investing in US stocks

Sina Finance ·  May 4 08:16

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting, which global investors are concerned about, was held in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska. Sina Finance had a conversation with Chen Kaifeng, the chief economist of Huisheng Financial Company of the United States, at the shareholders' meeting.

Speaking of artificial intelligence, he believes that currently artificial intelligence should be in full bloom in the US. There are many companies you can invest in, and “the sky is the limit” for investing in US stocks.

“The three biggest pieces of artificial intelligence, one is hardware, or chips, one is software, and the third is so-called data and computing power. Obviously, the US is very leading now.” Chen Kaifeng believes that from this point of view, America's next economic driving force is huge, and the stock market will definitely benefit, which is not the same as the logic of investing in US stocks two or three years ago.

He introduced current promising industry opportunities: one is healthcare, in the healthcare sector, including medical services, including biology, stem cells, cancer treatment, etc.; the other is fintech, global payments; the other is health food, which includes organic food, organic agriculture, etc.; and electric vehicles and electric trucks.

Guest quotes:

Currently, artificial intelligence should be in full bloom in the US, and there are many companies you can invest in.

Solar energy, wind energy, vehicles including new energy, and the entire energy storage system. I believe this is a great opportunity. Nor is this a short-term opportunity; it is an investment opportunity for five to ten years or decades.

The next biggest opportunity for Chinese companies is to push production capacity to other countries rather than within China.

The following is a transcript of an interview with Chen Kaifeng.

Sina Finance: Professor Chen, thank you very much for being interviewed by Sina Finance. What topics are you paying more attention to at this year's shareholders' meeting?

Chen Kaifeng: I've been paying a lot of attention. Of course, it depends on Buffett's next plans. Recently, he has lowered his Apple position a bit, including the cash he has, and his reserves have reached a new high, including his next investment. Of course, he has a lot of investments now. He's two successors, Ted and Todd, are doing it, and I want to hear about his next plans. Also, he talked a lot about artificial intelligence last year. The topic of artificial intelligence was very popular from last year until now. He also told everyone a year in advance. I'd like to hear his views on the next step in artificial intelligence.

Of course, a large part of it is Japan. Three years ago, he laid out Japan and told people all over the world that he has already earned several times more, so what are his next plans for Japan? I think he added another warehouse to Japan in January. So let's take a look at his next opinion on Japan. I'd like to hear him talk about all aspects, and of course there are many macroscopes I'd like to hear him talk about.

Sina Finance: Investing in Open Al is one of the most successful investment decisions Microsoft has made in recent years. In an exclusive interview with Sina Finance last year, you encouraged everyone to invest in Microsoft. You were very prescient, so would you continue to recommend investing in Microsoft now? Or what other companies in the field of artificial intelligence do you recommend?

Chen Kaifeng: Of course, there are many things. Regarding Open Al, of course, many things have happened since last year, including his CEO being fired and then coming back, but one thing is clear throughout the process, that is, the CEO of Microsoft has handled this matter in a very proper manner. From beginning to end, he said that I would support Open Al, but I won't interfere. In fact, Microsoft has benefited a lot, but it also made everyone feel that he left Open Al independent.

So from all aspects, I think Microsoft will definitely benefit from artificial intelligence, but in reality, not only Microsoft, but Apple itself is also developing many artificial intelligence technologies, including its voice assistants, ah, etc., including Tesla, etc. Currently, artificial intelligence should be in full bloom in the US, and there are many companies that can be invested in. Of course, as I mentioned at the beginning, Aerial, a little girl who started playing table tennis with Buffett for 10 years at age 9, is now also working at an artificial intelligence startup. So, I believe there are plenty of opportunities in this field.

Sina Finance: The development of artificial intelligence is inseparable from the support of its computing power. For example, the chip company Nvidia shares can be said to have grown rapidly several times over the past year. Do you think Nvidia's stock is suitable for long-term holding?

Chen Kaifeng: Of course, Nvidia's stock is the leader. Shares in the leading AI industry are worth holding, but not only computing power itself; in fact, energy is also. Now, because artificial intelligence consumes too much energy, the US has begun to run out of energy. Nvidia's chips are high in energy consumption. The one that provides energy is actually Buffett. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company is one of the largest energy companies in the US. Now Texas and the like are starting to run out of electricity; in fact, they are all benefiting.

Sina Finance: So, during last year's shareholders' meeting, Buffett didn't seem to be sure about the development of artificial intelligence, but he made a lot of money indirectly through artificial intelligence. For example, through his investments in energy. When it comes to energy, today's new energy, environmentally friendly energy is a very popular investment topic. What are your investment opinions on this aspect?

Chen Kaifeng: I think this is a major trend in the entire new energy market. There is no doubt about it. Whether it's solar energy, wind energy, cars that include new energy, or the entire energy storage system, I believe now is a great opportunity. Nor is this a short-term opportunity; it is an investment opportunity for five to ten years or decades. Not only are we investing; in fact, Buffett himself invests; Berkshire can invest tens of billions of dollars in new energy every year.

Sina Finance: The NEV industry seems to be developing very rapidly now, and the competition is very fierce. I feel like his moat isn't that high, so it's not in line with Buffett's value investment philosophy, right?

Chen Kaifeng: I think so. Of course, when you look at electric cars the most is the car year. People drive them on a daily basis, but in fact, electric cars are not only this type, but there are many others, such as agricultural machinery, Buffett, one of their biggest shareholders, Bill Gates, who is also a major shareholder, the large-scale integrated agricultural harvester he developed, etc. There is also satellite navigation, artificial intelligence, and electricity. The whole thing is electrically driven, as well as today's express delivery cars and electric trucks, such as Amazon. Therefore, the current electrification trend is that there are many other electric vehicle concepts that far surpass what people think of as ordinary cars; in fact, many new ones are being launched.

Sina Finance: When it comes to Open Al, its recently launched text-to-video model Sora is also very popular. The name Sora actually comes from the Japanese word sky, sky of the sky. Speaking of the sky, I am reminded of Professor Chen's recent comment on the development prospects of the US stock market on Sina Weibo: the sky is the limit. Can you explain what this phrase means?

Chen Kaifeng: Indeed, because we are now investing all over the world and going to many countries, I can feel that the development of artificial intelligence is indeed unstoppable. Well, the three biggest pieces of artificial intelligence are hardware, or chips, one is software, or artificial intelligence big data model, and the third is so-called data and computing power. Well, obviously, the US is now very leading in these three areas. From this point of view, America's next economic driving force will be huge, then the stock market will definitely benefit, which is not the same as the logic of investing in US stocks about two or three years ago. So I say the reason the sky is the limit now is that currently this large technology stock benefits from the three parts of artificial intelligence. Software, hardware, and data are all very helpful.

Sina Finance: You just mentioned that Buffett cut his Apple stock holdings. How do you think his investment decision will affect Berkshire's business in the long and short term?

Chen Kaifeng: OK. First, to be honest, Apple's performance has been average in recent years. Its revenue has declined, but profits are still good. Its profits are very good, but growth is weak. Moreover, Apple previously wanted to make its own car, an electric car, but now it has given up. Apple's new ones, like Vision Pro, 3D AR and VR, are still very good. However, it seems that Apple itself may be limited if it wants large-scale development. However, Apple is making large-scale repurchases, so if you are an Apple shareholder and you don't hold anything, your share share will continue to rise. So for Buffett, I think selling some Apple shares is a good thing to do. His share is getting higher and higher; he should sell some of them to do something else.

Sina Finance: You just mentioned the repurchase of this stock. Recently, I am also paying attention to one stock, Meta. Its stock is also rising very fast. I feel that one big reason is that it has also begun to repurchase shares and start paying dividends. Do you think his move will attract Buffett, who really likes cash flow, to invest in him?

Chen Kaifeng: It's hard to say this because Meta is indeed a software-only or software-biased company. In Buffett's words, I think Buffett still likes hardware companies, especially consumer goods related to consumer goods, such as Apple. Social networks like Meta are probably not within his circle of ability or are most concerned about.

Sina Finance: Um, right, stock god Buffett doesn't seem to pay much attention to technology stocks. For example, he doesn't think Apple is a technology stock; he thinks it's a consumer stock. When it comes to consumer goods, for example, brands are going overseas. In the global economic environment, it seems like an inevitable trend for brands to go overseas. Like Mata, its stock is very good. Another big reason is that it benefits from cross-border e-commerce, such as Pinduoduo Temu, which has huge advertising revenue. What do you think are the chances of investing in Chinese brands going overseas?

Chen Kaifeng: China now has an advantage, which is the cost advantage of the manufacturing industry, and it can be said that its production process, ah, has been very optimized. Therefore, China has an advantage, but its disadvantage is tariffs. All countries are increasing tariffs on China, and financial barriers are getting higher and higher.

Therefore, for Chinese brands to export in the future, I think all they can do is localize manufacturing, that is, learn from Japan back then. For example, if China wants to export products to the US, it must build a factory in the US; if it wants to export products to Germany, it must build a factory in Germany. If it exports to the Middle East now, it will have to build factories in the UAE and Saudi Arabia later.

This is currently a major trend, that is, you have to sell and make locally. I think this is also the next biggest opportunity for Chinese companies to push production capacity to other countries rather than within China. Now the domestic term is called internal volume, right? He wants to transfer production capacity to other countries. It can be said that this is a necessary path for internationalization.

Sina Finance: It sounds like this company is going overseas, and localization is also very important. It is now that the Federal Reserve has been slow to raise interest rates. In this situation where interest rates are very high, inflation is very high, and economic growth is very weak, what are the investment opportunities you see? For example, what industries are you more optimistic about?

Chen Kaifeng: Let me tell you about some of the industries we are currently working in, all because we are relatively optimistic. One is healthcare. The healthcare section includes medical services, including biology, stem cells, cancer treatment, etc.; the other is fintech, global payments, which we have invested in; the other is health food, which includes organic food, organic agriculture, etc.; and electric cars and electric trucks. I think these are all industries with great opportunities. They can be said to be opportunities for rapid technological growth and disrupting existing industries. We like them better.

Sina Finance: Well, now we're back to Buffett, Buffett's Berkshire company. He bought the operator of America's largest travel service center in January of this year. What are your thoughts on this decision?

Chen Kaifeng: I saw it today too. There will be a new pilot in this venue today, right? Of course, even though they bought it, there are still some problems. He now has a legal lawsuit, which is tantamount to the seller suing and wants more money. I think this is actually quite typical. Buffett's favorite company with a high moat is equivalent to serving that truck driver. At the same time, in various parts of the US, some retail stores, etc., these are all relatively difficult to replicate, and the barriers to entry are very high. If he manages it a little better, his revenue, profit, and cash flow will increase.

Sina Finance: Thank you very much for this wonderful sharing, and thank Professor Chen once again for being interviewed by Sina Finance. I hope to see Professor Chen again at tomorrow's shareholders' meeting and the Chinese and American Investors Reception hosted by Sina Finance tomorrow night. Thank you.

(Sina Finance's correspondent in the US, Bai Xue Amanda, Guo Yijie, Monica from Omaha, USA)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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