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We Think That There Are More Issues For Ginlong Technologies (SZSE:300763) Than Just Sluggish Earnings

We Think That There Are More Issues For Ginlong Technologies (SZSE:300763) Than Just Sluggish Earnings

我們認爲,金龍科技(深圳證券交易所代碼:300763)面臨的問題不僅僅是收益疲軟
Simply Wall St ·  05/04 21:14

Ginlong Technologies Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300763) stock wasn't much affected by its recent lackluster earnings numbers. We did some digging, and we believe that investors are missing some worrying factors underlying the profit figures.

金龍科技有限公司's(深圳證券交易所股票代碼:300763)的股票並未受到其最近疲軟的收益數字的太大影響。我們進行了一些挖掘,我們認爲投資者遺漏了構成利潤數據的一些令人擔憂的因素。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SZSE:300763 Earnings and Revenue History May 5th 2024
SZSE: 300763 收益和收入歷史記錄 2024 年 5 月 5 日

A Closer Look At Ginlong Technologies' Earnings

仔細看看金龍科技的收益

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

許多投資者還沒有聽說過現金流的應計比率,但它實際上是衡量公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)在多大程度上支持利潤的有用指標。簡而言之,該比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該時期公司的平均運營資產。你可以將現金流的應計比率視爲 “非FCF利潤率”。

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

這意味着負應計比率是一件好事,因爲它表明該公司帶來的自由現金流超出了其利潤所暗示的範圍。儘管應計比率高於零並不令人擔憂,但我們確實認爲,當公司的應計比率相對較高時,值得注意。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,總的來說,高應計比率對短期利潤來說是個壞兆頭。

For the year to March 2024, Ginlong Technologies had an accrual ratio of 0.59. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥475.5m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥7.4b in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥7.4b, this year, indicates high risk. Unfortunately for shareholders, the company has also been issuing new shares, diluting their share of future earnings.

在截至2024年3月的一年中,金龍科技的應計比率爲0.59。從統計學上講,這對未來的收益來說確實是負面的。事實上,在此期間,該公司沒有產生任何自由現金流。儘管該公司報告的利潤爲4.755億元人民幣,但從自由現金流來看,它實際上在去年消耗了74億元人民幣。在去年自由現金流爲負的背景下,我們想象一些股東可能會懷疑其今年74億元人民幣的現金消耗是否表明存在高風險。對於股東來說,不幸的是,該公司也一直在發行新股,稀釋了他們在未來收益中所佔的份額。

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

這可能會讓你想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看根據他們的估計描繪未來盈利能力的交互式圖表。

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. Ginlong Technologies expanded the number of shares on issue by 8.1% over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Ginlong Technologies' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

要了解公司收益增長的價值,必須考慮削弱股東的利益。金龍科技將已發行股票數量比去年增加了8.1%。這意味着其收益將分配給更多的股票。在慶祝淨收入的同時忽略稀釋就像歡欣鼓舞,因爲你只有一片更大的披薩,但卻忽略了披薩現在被切成更多片的事實。點擊此鏈接,查看金龍科技的歷史每股收益增長。

How Is Dilution Impacting Ginlong Technologies' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

稀釋如何影響金龍科技的每股收益(EPS)?

Ginlong Technologies has improved its profit over the last three years, with an annualized gain of 30% in that time. In comparison, earnings per share only gained 17% over the same period. Net income was down 61% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately for shareholders, though, the earnings per share result was even worse, declining 63%. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders.

在過去三年中,金龍科技的利潤有所提高,在此期間年化增長了30%。相比之下,收益 每股 同期僅上漲了17%。在過去的十二個月中,淨收入下降了61%。但是,對於股東來說,不幸的是 每股收益 結果甚至更糟,下降了63%。因此,你可以看到稀釋對股東產生了一些影響。

If Ginlong Technologies' EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

如果Ginlong Technologies的每股收益能夠隨着時間的推移而增長,那麼這將大大提高股價朝着同一方向移動的機會。但是,如果其利潤增加而每股收益保持不變(甚至下降),那麼股東可能看不到太多好處。出於這個原因,你可以說從長遠來看,每股收益比淨收入更重要,前提是目標是評估公司的股價是否可能上漲。

Our Take On Ginlong Technologies' Profit Performance

我們對金龍科技盈利表現的看法

In conclusion, Ginlong Technologies has weak cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates lower quality earnings, and the dilution means that shareholders now own a smaller proportion of the company (assuming they maintained the same number of shares). Considering all this we'd argue Ginlong Technologies' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 4 warning signs for Ginlong Technologies (2 are concerning!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

總之,Ginlong Technologies的現金流相對於收益較弱,這表明收益質量較低,而稀釋意味着股東現在擁有的公司股份比例較小(假設他們保持相同數量的股份)。考慮到所有這些,我們認爲Ginlong Technologies的利潤可能給人一種對其可持續盈利水平的過於慷慨的印象。有鑑於此,如果你想對公司進行更多分析,了解所涉及的風險至關重要。當我們進行研究時,我們發現了 Ginlong Technologies 的 4 個警告信號(2 個令人擔憂!)我們認爲值得你全神貫注。

Our examination of Ginlong Technologies has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

我們對Ginlong Technologies的審查側重於某些可能使其收益看起來好於實際的因素。而且,在此基礎上,我們有些懷疑。但是,如果你能夠將注意力集中在細節上,總會有更多的事情需要發現。有些人認爲高股本回報率是優質業務的好兆頭。因此,你可能希望看到這份免費收藏的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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