The quarterly results for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIND) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 100% toUS$0.10 per share. Revenues of US$154m did beat expectations by 2.6%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$621.4m in 2024. This reflects a modest 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 65% to US$0.36. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$620.2m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 9.1% to US$12.50. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lindblad Expeditions Holdings at US$16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this to the 150 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
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