It's been a good week for USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (NYSE:USNA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 9.2% to US$47.10. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$228m were what the analysts expected, USANA Health Sciences surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.86 per share, an impressive 25% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, USANA Health Sciences' two analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$890.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 15% to US$2.75 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$889.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.73 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 13% to US$56.50, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the USANA Health Sciences' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2024 compared to the historical decline of 3.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect USANA Health Sciences to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of USANA Health Sciences' future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for USANA Health Sciences going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that USANA Health Sciences is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.