There's been a notable change in appetite for Global Industrial Company (NYSE:GIC) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 13% to US$35.09. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$323m, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.34 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Global Industrial's twin analysts is for revenues of US$1.37b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.8% to US$1.96. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.03 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.3% to US$45.00, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Global Industrial's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Global Industrial is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Global Industrial's future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Global Industrial going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Global Industrial has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.