The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:688798) strong earnings didn't offer any surprises. We think that investors have missed some encouraging factors underlying the profit figures.
Zooming In On Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd has an accrual ratio of -0.14 for the year to March 2024. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥430m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CN¥157.4m. Given that Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of CN¥430m would seem to be a step in the right direction. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd's profit was reduced by unusual items worth CN¥1.2m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
An Unusual Tax Situation
Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd profited from a tax benefit which contributed CN¥23m to profit. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. And given that it lost money last year, it seems possible that the benefit is evidence that it now expects to find value in its past tax losses. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal.
Our Take On Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance
In conclusion, both Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative, but the presence of a tax benefits may be inflating the numbers in a way that won't persist. Based on these factors, we think that Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd's profits are a reasonably conservative guide to its underlying profitability. Ultimately, this article has formed an opinion based on historical data. However, it can also be great to think about what analysts are forecasting for the future. So feel free to check out our free graph representing analyst forecasts.
Our examination of Shanghai Awinic TechnologyLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.