China BlueChemical Ltd. (HKG:3983) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. Our analysis suggests they may be concerned about some underlying details.
Zooming In On China BlueChemical's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to December 2023, China BlueChemical had an accrual ratio of 0.22. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥801m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥2.38b. We should mention, here, that China BlueChemical free cashflow was as flat as a pancake over the last twelve months. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of China BlueChemical.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥943m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that China BlueChemical's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to December 2023. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
Our Take On China BlueChemical's Profit Performance
Summing up, China BlueChemical received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at China BlueChemical's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you want to do dive deeper into China BlueChemical, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for China BlueChemical (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.