It's been a good week for TBEA Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600089) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.5% to CN¥14.15. TBEA beat revenue forecasts by a solid 14% to hit CN¥24b. Statutory earnings per share came in at CN¥2.39, in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, TBEA's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥103.0b in 2024. This would be a decent 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CN¥1.54, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥103.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.50 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on TBEA's earnings potential following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CN¥16.05, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on TBEA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥18.20 and the most bearish at CN¥10.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TBEA's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that TBEA is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards TBEA following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that TBEA's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for TBEA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - TBEA has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.