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Investing in Ginlong Technologies (SZSE:300763) Five Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 427% Gain

Investing in Ginlong Technologies (SZSE:300763) Five Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 427% Gain

五年前投資金龍科技(深圳證券交易所代碼:300763)將爲您帶來427%的收益
Simply Wall St ·  05/01 00:31

While Ginlong Technologies Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300763) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 10% in the last quarter. But over five years returns have been remarkably great. In that time, the share price has soared some 405% higher! So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 53% decline over the last twelve months.

儘管金龍科技股份有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:300763)的股東們可能普遍感到高興,但該股最近的表現並不特別好,上個季度股價下跌了10%。但是在五年多的時間裏,回報率非常高。在那段時間裏,股價飆升了約405%!因此,一些股東可能在表現良好後獲利。對於精明的投資者來說,最重要的事情是標的業務能否證明股價上漲是合理的。不幸的是,並非所有股東都會長揸該股票,因此請多考慮那些在過去十二個月中跌幅爲53%的股東。

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

因此,讓我們調查一下,看看公司的長期表現是否與基礎業務的進展一致。

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

在他的文章中 格雷厄姆和多茲維爾的超級投資者 禾倫·巴菲特描述了股價如何並不總是合理地反映企業的價值。考慮市場對公司的看法發生了怎樣的變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。

During five years of share price growth, Ginlong Technologies achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 21% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 38% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth. This optimism is visible in its fairly high P/E ratio of 45.05.

在五年的股價增長中,金龍科技實現了每年21%的複合每股收益(EPS)增長。每股收益的增長低於同期每年38%的股價增長。因此,可以公平地假設市場對該業務的看法比五年前更高。考慮到增長的記錄,這並不令人震驚。這種樂觀情緒體現在其相當高的市盈率45.05中。

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

你可以在下面看到 EPS 是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的(點擊圖片發現確切的值)。

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:300763 Earnings Per Share Growth May 1st 2024
深圳證券交易所:300763 每股收益增長 2024 年 5 月 1 日

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

在買入或賣出股票之前,我們始終建議仔細研究歷史增長趨勢,可在此處查閱。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Ginlong Technologies, it has a TSR of 427% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的股東總回報率和股價回報率。股東總回報率包含任何分拆或貼現資本籌集的價值,以及任何股息,前提是股息是再投資的。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來說,股東總回報率通常遠高於股價回報率。就金龍科技而言,在過去的5年中,其股東回報率爲427%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While the broader market lost about 12% in the twelve months, Ginlong Technologies shareholders did even worse, losing 53% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 39% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Ginlong Technologies (2 make us uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

儘管整個市場在十二個月中下跌了約12%,但金龍科技股東的表現甚至更糟,損失了53%(甚至包括股息)。話雖如此,在下跌的市場中,一些股票不可避免地會被超賣。關鍵是要密切關注基本發展。好的一面是,長期股東賺了錢,在過去的五年中,每年增長39%。如果基本面數據繼續顯示長期可持續增長,那麼當前的拋售可能是一個值得考慮的機會。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,我們已經確定了Ginlong Technologies的4個警告信號(2個讓我們感到不舒服),你應該注意這些信號。

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

如果你想看看另一家公司——一家財務狀況可能優異的公司——那麼千萬不要錯過這份已經證明自己可以增加收益的公司的免費名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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