3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath - in response to the drastic depreciation of US stocks, the lower price is limited even if the trend is soft

Fisco Japan · Apr 30 23:42

5月1日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は3日ぶりに反落、米国株大幅安を受けて軟調推移も下値は限定的

・ドル・円は小じっかり、157円後半に再浮上

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位はソフトバンクG＜9984＞

■日経平均は3日ぶりに反落、米国株大幅安を受けて軟調推移も下値は限定的

日経平均は3日ぶりに反落。前日比216.12円安（－0.56％）の38189.54円（出来高概算8億8000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

4月30日の米国株式市場は反落。ダウ平均は570.17ドル安（－1.49％）の37815.92ドル、ナスダックは325.26ポイント安（－2.04％）の15657.82、S&P500は80.48ポイント安（－1.57％）の5035.69で取引を終了した。1-3月期雇用コスト指数が予想上回る伸びとなったため、利下げ期待の後退で売られ寄り付き後、下落。賃金インフレが根強く高インフレが想定以上に長期化するとの懸念に長期金利の上昇が嫌気され相場は下落した。その後に発表された4月シカゴ購買部協会景気指数や消費者信頼感指数が予想を大幅に下回ったためスタグフレーション懸念も再燃しさらなる売り圧力となった。終盤にかけ、米連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）のタカ派を警戒した売りも強まり、下げ幅を拡大し終了。

米国株大幅安を受けて、東京市場は売り優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は75日移動平均線38272円水準を下回ってスタートした後は38100円でのもみ合いとなった。決算発表銘柄を中心とした物色が続いており、日経平均やTOPIXなど指数は方向感に乏しい状況となっている。今晩の米国で、米雇用関連などの経済指標やFOMC発表を控えていることから積極的な売買は手控えられ、下値も限定的となっている様子。

日経平均採用銘柄では、サウジアラビアで採算が悪化し前期赤字転換予想と発表した日揮HD＜1963＞が急落となったほか、前日決算発表後に買われた商船三井＜9104＞は下落し、前日の上昇分がはく落。また、決算に関連して東武鉄道＜9001＞、野村＜8604＞も売られた。日経平均採用以外の銘柄では、日本調剤＜3341＞、平和不動産＜8803＞、東京エレクトロンデバイス＜2760＞は決算が嫌気されて下落。

一方、1－3月期営業利益が前年同期比2.8倍で市場予想も上回ったことでレーザーテック＜6920＞が大幅高となった。また、JR西＜9021＞、JR東＜9020＞、資生堂＜4911＞、アドバンテスト＜6857＞、住友化学＜4005＞、三菱電機＜6503＞が上昇。日経平均採用以外の銘柄では、九州電力＜9508＞、北陸電力＜9505＞、東北電力＜9506＞など電力株が買われた。

業種別では、海運業、石油・石炭製品、ガラス・土石製品、証券・商品先物取引業、鉱業などが下落した一方、電気・ガス業、陸運業、水産・農林業の3セクターのみ上昇した。

為替は1ドル157円80銭台と158円台を意識した展開となっている。昨日公表された日本銀行の当座預金残高の資料から市場関係者が推計したところ、5兆円規模の円買い介入を実施したとの観測だが、29日につけた154円50銭台から既に3円超円安ドル高が進んでいる。今晩のFOMCではパウエルFRB議長が「タカ派」なコメントを行うとの見方もあり、米10年債利回りは上昇傾向を強める可能性がある。為替の円安推移で日本株が素直に買われる地合いではないが、政府・日銀による円買い介入が再度入るかもしれない、といった疑心暗鬼が日本株買いを手控えさせているようだ。後場も引き続き日経平均は38100円水準でのもみ合いとなろう。

■ドル・円は小じっかり、157円後半に再浮上

1日午前の東京市場でドル・円は小じっかりの値動きとなり、157円66銭から157円89銭まで値を上げた。米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）による引き締め的な政策の継続をにらみ、米金利高・ドル高の流れ。日本の為替介入も、ドルは再び上昇基調に振れた。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は157円66銭から157円89銭、ユーロ・円は168円13銭から168円37銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0657ドルから1.0672ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・ホーブ＜1382＞、データセクション＜3905＞など、3銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位はソフトバンクG＜9984＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・NZ・1-3月期失業率：4.3％（予想：4.2％、10-12月期：4.0％）

・NZ・1-3月期雇用者数増減：前期比-0.2％（予想：+0.3％、10-12月期：+0.4％）

【要人発言】

・ホークスビーNZ準備銀行副総裁

「世界的な高インフレは金融安定の重要なリスクであり続ける」

「雇用統計は労働市場の冷え込みの傾向を裏付けた」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・特になし

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on 5/1.

・The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 3 days, and the lower price was limited even with a soft trend due to the drastic depreciation of US stocks

・The dollar and yen were small and surfaced again in the latter half of 157 yen

・First Rate ＜9983＞ is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 3 days, and in response to a drastic depreciation in US stocks, the lower price was limited even with a soft trend

The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 3 days. The forward market transaction was closed at 38189.54 yen (estimated turnover of 880 million shares), which was 216.12 yen lower (-0.56%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market fell on April 30. The Dow average closed at 37815.92 dollars, which depreciated 570.17 dollars (-1.49%), the NASDAQ fell 325.26 points (-2.04%) at 15657.82, and the S&P 500 closed at 5035.69, which was 80.48 points lower (-1.57%). Since the employment cost index for the fiscal year ending January to 3 grew higher than expected, it was sold due to a retreat in expectations of interest rate cuts, and then fell after getting close. Wage inflation is deep-seated, and the market price fell due to concerns that high inflation would be prolonged longer than expected, and the rise in long-term interest rates was disgusted. Since the April Chicago Purchasing Department Association Business Climate Index and Consumer Confidence Index, which were announced later, fell far below expectations, concerns about stagflation were also rekindled, leading to further sales pressure. Towards the end of the game, sales that were wary of the hawkish faction of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also intensified, and the decline widened and ended.

In response to the drastic depreciation of US stocks, the Tokyo market began trading with a selling advantage. After the Nikkei Average started below the 75-day moving average level of 38272 yen, there was a fight at 38100 yen. Searches centered on stocks announcing financial results continue, and indices such as the Nikkei Average and TOPIX lack a sense of direction. In the US tonight, aggressive trading was refrained from due to the fact that economic indicators such as those related to US employment and FOMC announcements are ahead, and it seems that lower prices are also limited.

In stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, profitability deteriorated in Saudi Arabia, and JGC HD (1963), which was announced as a deficit conversion forecast for the previous fiscal year, plummeted, and MOL ＜9104＞, which was bought after financial results were announced the day before, fell, and the increase from the previous day plummeted. Also, Tobu Railway (9001) and Nomura (8604) were also sold in connection with financial results. Among stocks other than those adopted by the Nikkei Average, Nippon Dispensing (3341), Heiwa Real Estate (8803), and Tokyo Electron Devices (2760) declined due to disgust with financial results.

Meanwhile, operating profit for the January-March fiscal year was 2.8 times higher than the same period last year, which exceeded market expectations, so Lasertech (6920) rose drastically. Also, JR West ＜9021＞, JR East ＜9020＞, Shiseido ＜4911＞, Advantest ＜6857＞, Sumitomo Chemical ＜4005＞, and Mitsubishi Electric ＜6503＞ have risen. Electric power stocks such as Kyushu Electric Power ＜9508＞, Hokuriku Electric Power ＜9505＞, and Tohoku Electric Power ＜9506＞ were bought in stocks other than those adopted by the Nikkei Average.

By industry, shipping, petroleum/coal products, glass/earth and stone products, securities/commodity futures trading, mining, etc. declined, while only the three sectors of electricity and gas, land transportation, and fisheries/agriculture and forestry rose.

The exchange rate was developed with an awareness of the 157 yen 80 yen range and the 158 yen range per dollar. Market participants estimated from the Bank of Japan's current account balance data released yesterday, and it is observed that a yen purchase intervention on the scale of 5 trillion yen was carried out, but the depreciation of over 3 yen and the appreciation of the dollar has already progressed from the 154 yen 50 yen range set on the 29th. There is also a view that Fed Chairman Powell will make “hawkish” comments at tonight's FOMC, and there is a possibility that US 10-year bond yields will strengthen the upward trend. It is not in a position where Japanese stocks can be bought honestly due to the depreciation of the yen exchange rate, but it seems that doubts that yen buying intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan may re-enter are holding back from buying Japanese stocks. The Nikkei Average will continue to clash at the 38100 yen level in the aftermath.

■The dollar and yen were small and surfaced again in the latter half of 157 yen

There was a slight price movement of the dollar and yen in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 1st, and the price rose from 157 yen 66 yen to 157 yen 89 yen. Looking at the continuation of tight policies by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the trend of high US interest rates and appreciation of the dollar. The dollar once again swung on an upward trend due to Japan's exchange intervention.

The trading range up to this point has been from 157 yen 66 yen to 157 yen 89 sen for the dollar and yen, 168 yen 13 yen to 168 yen 37 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.0657 dollars to 1.0672 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・3 stocks, such as Hove ＜1382＞ and data section ＜3905＞, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・First Rate ＜9983＞ is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・NZ · Unemployment rate for the January-March period: 4.3% (forecast: 4.2%, October-12:4.0%)

・NZ · January-March employment increase or decrease: -0.2% compared to previous fiscal year (forecast: +0.3%, 10-12 fiscal year: +0.4%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of NZ Hawkesby

“High global inflation continues to be an important risk to financial stability”

“Employment statistics confirm the trend of a cooling labor market”

＜Domestic＞

・Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～米国株大幅安を受けて軟調推移も下値は限定的

3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath - in response to the drastic depreciation of US stocks, the lower price is limited even if the trend is soft

Risk Disclaimer

Statement