The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that the 24Q1 performance of listed tourist attraction companies was divided: national destinations with structural highlights or incremental supply showed a better year-on-year trend. Looking ahead to May 1st, the number of domestic travelers is expected to face last year's high base or still have some resilience, but the level of recovery in per capita consumption remains to be seen; we are optimistic about the marginal recovery slope for inbound and outbound travel. Considering fundamentals and potential catalysts, I recommend Songcheng Performing Arts (300144.SZ), and it is recommended to focus on Mount Emei A (000888.SZ) and Changbai Mountain (603099.SH).

The main views of CICC are as follows:

Performance differentiation among listed companies in Q1 tourist attractions: National destinations with structural highlights or incremental supply showed a better year-on-year trend

Significant year-on-year increases in Q1 performance include Changbai Mountain (benefiting from the popularity of snow and ice tours; passenger flow in Q1 scenic spots also increased by nearly 140%, benefiting from the company's main businesses such as passenger transportation and hotels) and Songcheng Performing Arts (benefiting from the opening of the new Foshan project, the reopening of the Shanghai project, and the low base of operations for less than 1 month in Q1 last year); Emeishan A (revenue and net profit after deducting non-net profit increased by nearly 7% year on year) and Lijiang Shares (revenue and profit were basically the same year-on-year).

The year-on-year decline in Q1 performance included Sante Ropeway, Tianmu Lake, Zhangjiajie, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, etc. Among them, Jiuhua Tourism and Huangshan Tourism were affected by rain and snow; China Youth Travel's Q1 revenue increased year-on-year but losses expanded. Among them, passenger flow and revenue of Wuzhen Scenic Area were +16% and +8%, respectively, but increased labor costs and discounts led to a year-on-year decline in net profit; Gubei Water Town was affected by the decline in popularity of scenic spots in the suburbs of Beijing and the spillover of demand for surrounding tours. 32%, business performance is under pressure.

Looking ahead to May 1st, the number of domestic travelers may still be resilient, but per capita consumption remains to be seen

According to statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic travelers during the May 1st holiday in '23 has increased by about +19% compared to the same period in '19; considering the continued strong desire and rich motivation of residents to travel under the heavy trend, CICC believes that the number of travelers may still be resilient: China Railway Group data shows that on 4/29-5/6, the average number of passengers sent per day is about +8% compared to the actual average number of passengers sent per day last year; the Civil Aviation Administration estimates that the country's civil aviation industry is expected to send 10.1 million passengers during the May 1st holiday, or +9.5% compared to the same period last year. However, CICC pointed out that air ticket and hotel prices are under year-on-year pressure: as of 4/24, flight managers expect the average price of domestic air tickets (economy class) to drop by about 10% year-on-year during the May 1st holiday; where to go shows that the average price of hotels in popular cities during the May 1st holiday will drop by about 20%.

Optimistic about the marginal recovery slope for inbound and outbound tourism

Due to the continued expansion of visa-free countries and the successive resumption of international flights, the State Administration of Immigration predicts a 40.5% year-on-year increase in the average number of people entering and leaving the country's ports during the May 1st holiday. In terms of outbound travel, Ctrip data shows that as of 4/16, the popularity of May Day outbound ticket searches increased 56% year on year; Flying Pig data shows that as of 4/23, the per capita purchase price of international air tickets during the May Day holiday fell by about 19% year on year; flight manager data shows that the top 3 countries with planned outbound flights were South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, respectively. In terms of inbound travel, Ctrip data shows that inbound travel bookings for the May 1st holiday also increased by 130%; popular destinations such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu are mainly from Japan, the United States, South Korea, Canada, and Malaysia.

Risk warning

The increase in the number of domestic tourists and revenue fell short of expectations; the recovery in tourist flow and revenue from scenic spots fell short of expectations.