3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath ~ stocks with good financial results are bought and surpass the 75-day line

Fisco Japan · Apr 29 23:22

30日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は大幅続伸、好決算銘柄が買われて75日線を上回る

・日米金利差の早期縮小観測後退でドル買い縮小の可能性低い

・値上り寄与トップは東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、同2位は信越化学工業＜4063＞

■日経平均は大幅続伸、好決算銘柄が買われて75日線を上回る

日経平均は大幅続伸。前営業日比524.25円高（＋1.38％）の38459.01円（出来高概算9億8000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

米国株式市場は続伸。ダウ平均は146.43ドル高（＋0.38％）の38386.09ドル、ナスダックは55.19ポイント高（＋0.35％）の15983.09、S&P500は16.21ポイント高（＋0.32％）の5116.17で取引を終了した。マイクロソフト、アルファベットの決算を受けAI（人工知能）への楽観的見方に買われ寄り付き後、上昇。今週予定されている企業決算への期待感もさらなる買い材料となったほか、アップルやテスラの回復もハイテクをけん引し終日堅調に推移した。終盤にかけ、米連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）を控えた利益確定売りに伸び悩んだほか、財務省が発表した4－6月期の借り入れ推定額が予想外に上方修正されたことが警戒材料となり一時下落に転じた。しかし、押し目買い意欲も強く相場はプラス圏を回復し終了。

米国株上昇を受けて、連休明けの東京市場は買い優勢で取引を開始した。先週末に決算を発表した日経平均採用銘柄が複数大幅高となっていることも影響し、日経平均は38300円台で寄り付いた後はじりじりと上げ幅を拡大。75日移動平均線38231円水準を上回って前場の取引を終えた。為替が1ドル156円70銭台と先週末比で円安に振れていることも材料視されたもよう。

日経平均採用銘柄では、今期業績や自社株買いの枠設定、株式分割などが材料視された日立＜6501＞が急騰し上場来高値を更新したほか、今期業績予想が市場予想を大幅に超えた三菱電＜6503＞も大幅高となった。また、コマツ＜6301＞も自社株買いの枠設定などが材料視されて上場来高値を更新。このほか、トクヤマ＜4043＞、住友商事＜8053＞、ソシオネクスト＜6526＞、住友ファーマ＜4506＞が上昇。日経平均採用以外の銘柄では、さくら＜3778＞が今期大幅増益見通しを材料に大幅高となった。

一方、今期業績見通しが市場予想を下回ったことでアドバンテスト＜6857＞が大幅安となったほか、日東電工＜6988＞も今期最終減益見通しが嫌気されて売られた。また、エムスリー＜2413＞は前期業績などが嫌気されて大幅安。このほか、オリエンタルランド＜4661＞、セイコーエプソン＜6724＞、ANAホールディングス＜9202＞、TDK＜6762＞、住友化学＜4005＞が下落した。

業種別では、ゴム製品、海運業、機械、卸売業、電気機器などが上昇した一方、空運業、パルプ・紙、サービス業、水産・農林業の4セクターが下落した。

29日の為替市場では、13時過ぎに円が急伸し、一時1ドル154円台に入る場面も見られた。神田財務官は、介入実施の有無に関して「ノーコメント」としているが、5円超の円高ドル安を受けて、市場では「覆面介入が実施された」と指摘する声が多い。介入実施の有無や介入資金が判明するのは、5月末に財務相が公表する「外国為替平衡操作の実施状況」まで待つ必要がある。

ただ、日本銀行が発表する当座資金の推移から実施の有無を推測することはできる。仮に介入実施ということであれば「160円以上の円安は容認しない」という意思表示と理解できる。一方、介入資金は限りがあり、無尽蔵に介入を行うことが可能なわけではないので、今回の介入資金次第では、2回目、3回目という介入実施は難しい可能性もあるので、介入を巡る疑心暗鬼な状況はしばらく続くと考える。後場の東京市場は、為替動向を横目に、ランチタイムに決算が発表される商船三井＜9104＞、JPX＜8697＞など個別銘柄物色中心の地合いとなりそうだ。

■日米金利差の早期縮小観測後退でドル買い縮小の可能性低い

30日午前の東京市場でドル・円は156円70銭台で推移。156円07銭まで下げた後、156円99銭まで反発。日本の為替介入に対する警戒感は消えていないため、ドルは157円近辺で上げ渋る状態が続いてる。ただ、日米金利差の早期縮小観測は後退しており、ドル買い・円売りが大幅に縮小する状況ではないとみられる。

ここまでの取引レンジは156円07銭－156円99銭、ユーロ・ドルは上げ渋り。1.0703ドルから1.0725ドルで推移。ユーロ・円は反発。167円23銭から168円02銭まで値上り。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・ペプチドリーム＜4587＞、トリプルアイズ＜5026＞の、2銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップは東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、同2位は信越化学工業＜4063＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・米・4月ダラス連銀製造業活動指数：-14.5（予想：-11.3、3月：-14.4）

・独・4月消費者物価指数速報値：前年比+2.2％（予想：+2.3％、3月：+2.2％）

【要人発言】

・神田財務官

「介入かどうか申し上げないが24時間対応できる準備をしている」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・特になし

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in after-sale transactions on the 30th.

・The Nikkei Average continues to rise drastically, and stocks with good financial results are bought and above the 75-day line

・Early reduction in interest rate differences between Japan and the US is unlikely to shrink due to observation retreat

・Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) is in second place

■The Nikkei Average continues to rise drastically, and stocks with good financial results are bought and surpass the 75-day line

The Nikkei Average continued to rise drastically. The front-end transaction was closed at 38459.01 yen (estimated turnover of 980 million shares), which was 524.25 yen higher (+ 1.38%) compared to the previous business day.

The US stock market continues to grow. The Dow average closed at 38386.09 dollars which was 146.43 dollars higher (+ 0.38%), the NASDAQ was 55.19 points higher (+ 0.35%) at 15983.09, and the S&P 500 closed at 5116.17 which was 16.21 points higher (+ 0.32%). After Microsoft received Alphabet's financial results and was bought by an optimistic view of AI (artificial intelligence), it rose. Expectations for corporate financial results scheduled for this week also became further buying material, and the recovery of Apple and Tesla also led high technology and remained steady throughout the day. Towards the end of the game, in addition to sluggish growth in profit-making sales ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the fact that estimated borrowing amounts for the April-6 fiscal year announced by the Ministry of Finance were unexpectedly revised upward became alarming material and turned into a temporary decline. However, the market price recovered to the positive zone and ended due to strong motivation to buy.

In response to rising US stocks, the Tokyo market began trading with a buying advantage after the consecutive holidays. The fact that multiple stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, which announced financial results last weekend, were drastically higher also had an impact, and after the Nikkei Average came close to the 38300 yen range, the increase gradually expanded. It surpassed the 75-day moving average level of 38231 yen and closed the front market. The fact that the exchange rate depreciated to 156 yen 70 yen per dollar compared to last weekend was also viewed as evidence.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, Hitachi ＜6501＞, which was viewed as material for current fiscal year results, share buyout framework settings, stock splits, etc., skyrocketed and updated high prices since listing, and Mitsubishi Electric (6503), whose earnings forecasts for the current fiscal year greatly exceeded market expectations, also rose drastically. Also, Komatsu ＜6301＞ also updated the high price since listing due to the fact that the company stock buyout frame was viewed as material. In addition, Tokuyama ＜4043＞, Sumitomo Corporation ＜8053＞, Socionext ＜6526＞, and Sumitomo Pharma ＜4506＞ have risen. Among stocks other than those adopted by the Nikkei Average, Sakura (3778) rose drastically, based on the forecast for a drastic increase in profit for the current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, Advantest ＜6857＞ depreciated drastically because the earnings forecast for the current fiscal year fell short of market expectations, and Nitto Denko (6988) was also sold disgusted by the final profit decline forecast for the current fiscal year. Also, M3 ＜2413＞ depreciated drastically due to disgust with the previous fiscal year's results, etc. Additionally, Oriental Land (4661), Seiko Epson (6724), ANA Holdings (9202), TDK (6762), and Sumitomo Chemical (4005) declined.

By industry, while rubber products, shipping, machinery, wholesale trade, electrical equipment, etc. rose, the four sectors of air transportation, pulp/paper, services, and fisheries/agriculture and forestry declined.

In the exchange market on the 29th, the yen rapidly increased after 13:00, and there was also a scene where it entered the 154 yen range of 1 dollar at one point. Treasurer Kanda says “no comment” on whether or not an intervention has been implemented, but in response to the appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar by over 5 yen, there are many voices pointing out that “masked intervention was carried out” in the market. It is necessary to wait until the “implementation status of foreign exchange equilibrium operations” announced by the finance minister at the end of May for the presence or absence of intervention implementation and intervention funds to be known.

However, it is possible to infer the presence or absence of implementation from changes in current accounts announced by the Bank of Japan. If an intervention were to be implemented, it can be understood as a statement of intent that “depreciation of the yen of 160 yen or more is not acceptable.” On the other hand, intervention funds are limited, and it is not possible to perform an inexhaustible amount of intervention, so depending on the current intervention funds, there is a possibility that it will be difficult to implement the second or third intervention, so I think the suspicious situation surrounding the intervention will continue for a while. The backstage Tokyo market is likely to be centered around looking for individual stocks such as MOL ＜9104＞ and JPX ＜8697＞, where financial results are announced at lunchtime, with exchange rate trends on the sidelines.

■Early reduction in Japan-US interest rate differences There is a low possibility that dollar buying will shrink due to observation retreat

The dollar and yen remained in the 156 yen 70 yen range at the Tokyo market on the morning of the 30th. After falling to 156 yen 07 yen, it rebounded to 156 yen 99 yen. Since the sense of caution against Japan's exchange intervention has not disappeared, the dollar continues to be reluctant to rise around 157 yen. However, early observation of a reduction in interest rate differences between Japan and the US has receded, and it seems that dollar buying/yen sales are not drastically shrinking.

The trading range up to this point is 156 yen 07 yen - 156 yen 99 sen, and the euro and dollar are reluctant to rise. It changed from $1.0703 to $1.0725. The euro and yen rebounded. The price increased from 167 yen 23 yen to 168 yen 02 yen.

■Backstage check stocks

・The 2 brands of PeptiDream ＜4587＞ and Triple Eyes ＜5026＞ are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) is in second place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・US-April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index: -14.5 (forecast: -11.3, March: -14.4)

・Preliminary German Consumer Price Index for April: +2.2% compared to the previous year (forecast: +2.3%, March: +2.2%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Kanda Treasurer

“I'm not saying whether it's an intervention or not, but we are preparing to be able to respond 24 hours a day”

＜Domestic＞

・Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～好決算銘柄が買われて75日線を上回る

3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath ~ stocks with good financial results are bought and surpass the 75-day line

Risk Disclaimer

Statement