The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report saying that the public fund's 2024 quarterly report has been disclosed, that the computer sector's heavy holdings are at a low level, and the overall concentration of the top ten major stocks in the sector has increased. Overseas cloud vendors have given CAPEX that have exceeded expectations and raised subsequent CAPEX guidelines, and intelligent computing power construction continues to be popular; domestically, the Sora-like model Vidu was released, which is expected to promote the implementation of major domestic video models and applications, and Beijing introduced a computing power policy last week, which is expected to accelerate domestic computing power construction.
Suggestions to focus on: 1) Investment in computing power infrastructure at home and abroad remains hot, domestic computing power has received policy support, and it is recommended to focus on computing power vendors; 2) Vidu's release is expected to promote the implementation of video applications in the domestic market, and it is recommended to focus on AI application targets; 3) Low-altitude economic policies continue to be catalyzed, and the early stages were still mainly based on ground infrastructure and security system construction. It is recommended to focus on related targets such as air traffic control systems, integrated smart transportation integrators, and airport information technology manufacturers; 4) The overall prosperity of overseas travel remains at a high level.
The main views of CITIC Construction Investment Securities are as follows:
The overall holding ratio of the TMT sector has declined, the share of positions in the computer sector has declined, and the industry is at a low level
According to the top ten fund stocks reported by the public fund for the first quarter of 2024, CITIC Construction Investment Securities estimated that the overall holding ratio of public funds in the TMT sector (including Shenwan Industry Communications, Computer, Electronics, Media) in the first quarter of 2024 was 20.86%, down 2.37% month-on-month; the computer sector's heavy holdings ratio was 3.61% (using the Shenwan Computer Index, the market value was based on the closing of 2024.3.31), the share of holdings fell 1.36% month-on-month, and the overall holding fraction was nearly 50% for the fifth year Below, the industry overmatch ratio is- 0.24%
The number of fund holdings in heavy holdings has declined, and the concentration of shareholding has increased
Under the above standards, the total market value of the top ten heavy-held stocks in the 2024Q1 computer industry in the public equity fund was 61.170 billion yuan. In terms of concentration, CR5 and CR10 were 48.33% and 62.44% respectively, up 43.62% and 58.04% from 23Q4; in terms of the number of stocks held in the current period, the total number of heavy-held stocks was 187, down from 210 in the previous period. Among the top ten major stock stocks, Inspur Information (000977.SZ), Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH), Dahua (002236.SZ), and Wangsu Technology (300017.SZ) were new targets. Baoxin Software (600845.SH), Tonghuashun (300033.SZ), Hang Seng Electronics (600570.SH), and Shenshun (300454.SZ) withdrew from the top ten.
Overseas cloud vendors all raised CAPX expenses month-on-month, and the infrastructure boom continued to improve
Last week, North American cloud vendors such as Google and Microsoft held first-quarter results briefings one after another. Among them, Google's 24Q1 revenue and profit exceeded market expectations. 24Q1 CAPEX is about 12 billion US dollars, and the capital expenditure is expected to be more than 12 billion US dollars per quarter throughout the year, mainly investing in AI infrastructure to ensure the accelerated development of Gemini and TPU. Microsoft said at the performance conference that the overall supply of computing power cards is still in short supply. The current quarter CAPEX is 14 billion US dollars, which is expected to increase significantly over the next quarter; in addition, Meta raised its annual capital expenditure from the previous 300-37 billion US dollars to 35-40 billion US dollars to support data centers AI business for construction services.
Overall, several major cloud vendors have proposed to raise CAPEX guidelines and mainly invest in AI infrastructure, indicating that the current high level of AI computing power will continue, and AI infrastructure construction will also accelerate the pace of updating and iteration of major models, including GPT and Llama, and promote the implementation of AI applications at home and abroad.
China's first long-time, high-dynamic video model Vidu was released, and AI industry development resonated globally
On April 27, Tsinghua University Joint Student Digital Technology released the first large-scale video model in China, Vidu, at the 2024 Zhongguancun Forum Future Artificial Intelligence Pioneer Forum. This model is similar to Sora, which was popular overseas before. Technically, Diffusion and Transformer form a fusion architecture U-VIT, which supports the generation of 16-second high-definition video content with a length of 16 seconds and a resolution of 1080P with one click.
In terms of performance, Vidu comprehensively matches the top international standards and continues to be iteratively improved, achieving good results in simulating the real physical world, multi-camera language, and understanding Chinese elements. The breakthrough in this model shows that the country maintains an international leading level in big model technology. With the deep integration of subsequent models and industrial applications, opening up upstream and downstream, it is expected to promote the widespread implementation of major domestic video models and applications.
Beijing's computing power infrastructure policy was introduced, and domestic computing power is expected to benefit significantly
On April 25, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology and the Beijing Communications Administration jointly issued the “Beijing Computing Infrastructure Construction Implementation Plan (2024-2027)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Implementation Plan”). The core of the implementation plan is clear: 1) The city's intelligent computing supply scale will reach 45 EFLOPS in 2025, bringing large-scale intelligent computing construction growth; 2) 100% autonomy of intelligent computing infrastructure in 2027, bringing broad market space to domestic computing power and supporting software and hardware; 3) the intelligent computing center has strict PUE indicators to improve the penetration rate of liquid cooling; 4) financial support to support the promotion of 2 and 3 businesses in the form of subsidies.
Risk warning
(1) Macroeconomic downside risk: The downstream of the computer industry involves thousands of industries. Under downward macroeconomic pressure, the industry's IT expenditure falling short of expectations will directly affect the demand of the computer industry.
(2) Risk of bad debts in accounts receivable: Most computer companies mainly prepare documents for projects, and they need to be able to receive repayments after passing the inspection. Longer payment cycles for downstream customers may lead to an increase in bad accounts receivable and may further lead to asset impairment losses.
(3) Increased competition in the industry: Demand in the computer industry is more determined, but supply-side competition may increase, leading to changes in the industry pattern.
(4) The impact of changes in the international environment (currently, the US continues to raise interest rates, affecting the valuation of the technology industry. At the same time, market expectations for overseas recession are increasing, which may have an impact on companies that account for relatively high overseas revenue. Furthermore, the US continues to put pressure on Chinese technology).