Despite posting strong earnings, Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) Limited's (HKG:2451) stock didn't move much over the last week. We decided to have a deeper look, and we believe that investors might be worried about several concerning factors that we found.
A Closer Look At Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman)'s Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) has an accrual ratio of 0.31 for the year to December 2023. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥57m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of CN¥145.6m. Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. One positive for Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman)'s profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥75m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2023. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
Our Take On Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman)'s Profit Performance
Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman)'s statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman), and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
Our examination of Luyuan Group Holding (Cayman) has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.