The recent earnings posted by Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.,Ltd (SHSE:601100) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.
A Closer Look At Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to March 2024, Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 0.25. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥772m, which is significantly less than its profit of CN¥2.48b. Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd's Profit Performance
Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd (1 can't be ignored!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Jiangsu Hengli HydraulicLtd's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.