Jinwu Financial News | According to Guosheng Securities Research, the amount of interest-bearing debt of Longhu Group (00960) at the end of 2023 was 192.65 billion yuan (RMB, same below), a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, of which short-term interest-bearing debt was 26.84 billion yuan. The maturity scale of open bonds within 2024 is 6 billion yuan, concentrated in May, July-August, and December. As of the end of 2023, the company had cash of 60.42 billion yuan, and the pressure to repay short-term maturing debts was light.
According to the bank, in terms of financing costs, the company's comprehensive financing costs rose slightly by 0.14pct to 4.24% in 2023, maintaining overall stability. Two medium-term notes were successfully issued through the China Bond Credit Enhancement Guarantee during the period, with a total size of 2.3 billion yuan. The company's short-term cash debt ratio in 2023 was 2.25 times. Excluding pre-sale supervision funds and restricted funds, the short-term cash debt ratio was 1.36 times; in terms of commercial investment, the company added 12 new shopping malls in 2023, with a total operating floor area of 7.97 million square meters at the end of the period, and the rental rate recovered to 96% at the end of the period. Shopping mall rental revenue in 2023 was 10.28 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the previous year. In terms of long-term rental apartments, Guanyu has opened 123,000 rooms, with an overall occupancy rate of 95.5%, achieving rental income of 2.55 billion yuan, an increase of 6% over the previous year. Overall, the scale of the company's operation and management has increased countercyclically, providing the company with a safe and stable cash flow.
The bank continued that there is still pressure to eliminate low-energy cities on the soil storage side. As of the end of the 2023 period, the company's land reserves were 45.39 million square meters, and equity soil reserves were 32.36 million square meters. The Bohai Rim and western regions account for relatively high proportions, accounting for 33.1% and 25.3% of total land storage, respectively. Among these two regions, Yantai and Chongqing account for relatively high proportions; the Yangtze River Delta, Central China, and South China account for 16.7%, 13.8%, and 11.1% respectively.
Considering the current downward environment in the industry, the bank adjusted its profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is 1715.2/1641.5/158.64 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother is 124.7/123.4/12.51 billion yuan; the corresponding EPS is 1.84/1.82/1.85 yuan/share; and the corresponding PE is 4.9/5.0/4.9 times. Downgraded to “Overweight” rating.