The dispute over the new technology route for photovoltaic cells has been around for a long time, and in the past two years, TopCon has been favored by many photovoltaic giants. After gradually replacing PERC's production capacity, everyone seems to have seen a definite future at TopCon.

However, the author recently discovered that it is still too early to separate the advantages and disadvantages of technical routes. The reason is due to the following two pieces of information:

The first is that the industry is once again beginning to compete homogeneously at TopCon. According to Infolink statistics, the total battery production capacity reached more than 1,100 GW at the end of 2023, more than double terminal demand. Among them, Topcon's battery production capacity reached 670 GW. Under the fierce game, corporate low price bids caused product prices to keep falling to new lows, and Jinko Energy and Tianhe Solar also experienced sharp declines in profits.

The second is a new breakthrough in BC's technology route. According to media reports, a preview version of a component product specification obtained by a distributor shows that the module efficiency is 24.4%, and the power is 625-660W. The key here is a conversion efficiency of up to 24.4%. If the screenshot of this file is true, this will clearly exceed the highest efficiency of similar products currently on the market.

It is worth noting that the screenshot shows that the product is a Longji Hi-MO 9, which makes the content much more realistic. Everyone knows Longji's All in BC technology, and the released product Hi-MO6 has exactly this naming logic.

Earlier, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Green Energy, revealed in an interview with the media that the company will soon launch the next generation BC battery. Looking at it this way, it seems possible to boldly speculate that the product specification is most likely a new component manufactured by LONGE using stronger batteries.

What level is 24.4% conversion efficiency?

Let's take a look at what level this is suspected to be Longji's new product. Let's first compare a few other leading companies.

In 2023, Jinko Energy released “one of the most efficient solar module products in the world” - the second-generation Tiger Neo series module. The product is equipped with TopCon batteries, and the component efficiency is between 22.27% and 23.23%. According to the official website data, the maximum power can reach 630W, and the component conversion efficiency can reach up to 23.3%.

(Source: JinkoEnergy's official website)

In the same year, Trina Solar's investor relations activity record sheet mentioned that TRW was the first to achieve mass production power exceeding 700W for TopCon modules, and has now held the world record of 24.24% window efficiency for TopCon components.

Like Longji, it chose to bet on BC Technology's Aixu Co., Ltd. According to data, the conversion efficiency of its ABC component Comet series can reach up to 23.9%.

Therefore, if the conversion efficiency of 24.4% in the screenshot of the file is true, this new component will clearly lead the leading companies in the industry. Moreover, judging from the information currently available, it may actually be HPBC technology developed by LONGE itself.

Let's take a look at the products previously released by LONGE:

LONGE released Hi-MO 6 in 2022, then upgraded to release Hi-MO X6 components the following year, using HPBC technology. In terms of efficiency performance, the efficiency of Hi-mo X6 modules can reach 22.8%, up to 23.3%. The conversion efficiency of HPBC batteries is 25.59%, up to 25.8%.

Recall the key information revealed by Longji Green Energy Chairman Zhong Baoshen in an interview with the media this year: the next BC battery to be launched soon will be 5% higher than the mainstream TopCon batteries currently on the market.

The efficiency of the Hi-MO X6 has reached 23.3%, so using next-generation BC technology, if a huge breakthrough of 5% is achieved in efficiency, Longji will manufacture a new component product with an efficiency of 24.4%, which can be fully achieved.

In this case, the BC technology route is likely to be a “critical attack” on photovoltaic companies that have greatly expanded production on the Topcon route.

Because Longji HPBC components currently have the potential to widen the gap with TopCon in terms of efficiency, the “butterfly effect” will profoundly affect the entire industry. Once the difference between the two technology routes becomes larger, advanced technology will quickly seize the market.

PERC replaced the aluminum back field for more than 10 years, and Topcon replaced PERC for only 5 years. The new technology route may be faster to replace TopCon.

Are new technologies and new products an opportunity for Longji to overturn the market?

If LONGI's Hi-MO 9 is about to be launched, is LONGI really ready in terms of technology and production capacity?

According to media reports, Hi-mo 9 is probably a component product based on the HPBC Pro version of the battery, and is a double-sided product for centralized terrestrial power plants. The launch date is expected to be in the second half of this year.

Last year, Longji issued an announcement stating that the board of directors officially passed the “Proposal on Investing in the Construction of a 12GW High Efficiency Monocrystalline Battery Project in Tongchuan”. According to the bill, the 12GW battery project product will use HPBC Pro high-efficiency battery technology, with an estimated total investment of 3,9151 billion yuan. It is expected that production will gradually begin in November 2024 and reach production in November 2025.

Judging from the technology and time included in the above two sets of information, the project was probably prepared for Hi-MO 9. In other words, LONGE will gradually have the conditions for large-scale continuous production of Hi-MO 9.

As a result, LONGE brings higher efficiency and lower costs through next-generation BC technology, which is also predictable. Longji's return on investment will increase accordingly. In the future, it will avoid homogenized competition and will not face the embarrassment of TopCon's investment income falling short of expectations due to excess.

Judging from the current state of the industry, Longji's insistence on BC technology is quite correct. To some extent, this is inseparable from Longji's “broad research and narrow investment” R&D strategy.

In the R&D sector, Longji targets different technologies and industrial fields, so that it can select the most promising technology routes; in terms of production capacity layout, Longji will focus more on selecting the technology with the most potential for development and the most socially valuable, and concentrate on investing the selected technology seeds into mass production.

LONGI is very forward-looking for future development. With excess capacity and falling prices, some PV companies will definitely be eliminated. Only when LONGI remains active in technological innovation and is not blind in terms of capacity layout can it have the ability to go through the cycle.

The photovoltaic industry is growing rapidly, but it is cyclical. The layout of technology is not forward-looking enough, or the layout of production capacity is too blind, which may reverse its own business situation and be left behind on the road to a better future for the photovoltaic industry.

Today, there are only two PV companies left with a market capitalization of over 100 billion dollars, Sunshine Power and Longji Green Energy. At the peak of the previous two years, the highest market capitalization of several companies exceeded 100 billion yuan. In addition to the Hi-MO 9 module product specification, which sparked a lot of discussion a few days ago, it has all been reflected from the side, and LONGE's differentiating advantages are becoming more and more obvious.” After the “Big Wave”, Longji remained leading the way in the industry.

Epilogue

For TopCon, BC technology is similar to how single crystals formed a “dimensional reduction attack” on polycrystals back then, but the iterative process takes a certain amount of time, and Hi-Mo 9 is the best proof.

The first quarter of this year is a low season for market demand, and looking forward to the future, as Longji's production capacity changes and the production capacity of new technology continues to increase, this year is bound to be a big year for mass production of Longji's new technology. In March of this year, LONGE also released new Terry Silicon products and is ready for large-scale production, which is expected to continue to deliver value this year. It is worth looking forward to the long-term growth of LONGI GREEN ENERGY's performance.