To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Looking at Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC), it does have a high ROCE right now, but lets see how returns are trending.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Warrior Met Coal, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.25 = US$550m ÷ (US$2.4b - US$148m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

So, Warrior Met Coal has an ROCE of 25%. In absolute terms that's a great return and it's even better than the Metals and Mining industry average of 9.4%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Warrior Met Coal compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Warrior Met Coal .

What Can We Tell From Warrior Met Coal's ROCE Trend?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Warrior Met Coal, we didn't gain much confidence. Historically returns on capital were even higher at 41%, but they have dropped over the last five years. However it looks like Warrior Met Coal might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.

In Conclusion...

In summary, Warrior Met Coal is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 176% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for Warrior Met Coal that we think you should be aware of.

If you'd like to see other companies earning high returns, check out our free list of companies earning high returns with solid balance sheets here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.