As you might know, Constellium SE (NYSE:CSTM) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Revenue of €1.7b surpassed estimates by 7.8%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 46% below expectations at €0.11 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Constellium's six analysts is for revenues of €7.32b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 109% to €1.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.71 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a slight bump in to revenue forecasts.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$25.16, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Constellium's valuation in the near term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Constellium at US$27.04 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.70. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Constellium's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 8.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Constellium is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Constellium will grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Constellium going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Constellium you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.