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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE:CPA)?

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 28 09:09

With its stock down 5.0% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA). However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on Copa Holdings' ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Copa Holdings is:

24% = US$518m ÷ US$2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.24 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Copa Holdings' Earnings Growth And 24% ROE

First thing first, we like that Copa Holdings has an impressive ROE. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 14% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Under the circumstances, Copa Holdings' considerable five year net income growth of 34% was to be expected.

We then compared Copa Holdings' net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 6.2% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:CPA Past Earnings Growth April 28th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is CPA worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CPA is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Copa Holdings Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

The LTM (or last twelve month) payout ratio for Copa Holdings is 25%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 75%. So it seems that Copa Holdings is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Moreover, Copa Holdings is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 34% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

In total, we are pretty happy with Copa Holdings' performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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