The analysts covering Calix, Inc. (NYSE:CALX) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Calix's eight analysts is for revenues of US$853m in 2024, which would reflect a definite 16% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. After this downgrade, the company is anticipated to report a loss of US$0.34 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$952m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.30 in 2024. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Calix's prospects, with a measurable cut to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.
The consensus price target fell 14% to US$39.55, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Calix's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts are expecting Calix to become unprofitable this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Calix's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Calix.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Calix going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.