As you might know, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co., Ltd (SZSE:300347) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥1.7b) coming in 25% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.27 fell 49% short. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting after the latest results.
After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting are now predicting revenues of CN¥8.21b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.0% to CN¥2.01. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥8.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.48 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥73.15 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting at CN¥248 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥30.90. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥73.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.