It's been a good week for Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.6% to US$243. Union Pacific reported US$6.0b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.69 beat expectations, being 6.3% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the 23 analysts covering Union Pacific are now predicting revenues of US$24.8b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 7.5% to US$11.25. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$24.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.11 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$262, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Union Pacific, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$290 and the most bearish at US$210 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 3.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 3.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that Union Pacific is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Union Pacific going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Union Pacific that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.