■Stock Market Forecast

Expected range: upper limit 39,000 yen - lower limit 37500 yen

The US stock market rebounded on the 26th of this weekend. The Dow average closed at 38239.66 dollars, which was 153.86 dollars higher (+ 0.40%) than the previous day, the NASDAQ was 15927.90, 316.14 points higher (+ 2.03%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5099.96, which was 51.54 points higher (+ 1.02%). Taisen Night Exchange is 38350 yen, which is 450 yen higher than the regular transaction closing price.

The value of the Nikkei Average has returned to the 38177 yen level where the 75-day moving average is located. Meanwhile, TOPIX has been moving above the 75-day moving average throughout the week, and is more solid than the Nikkei Average. The Nikkei Average is highly influenced by the semiconductor stocks Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ and Advantest ＜6857＞, and the chart shape of Tokyo Electron is very similar to the Nikkei Average. The NT ratio, which expanded to 14.82 times on 3/4, shrank to 14.06 times on 4/22, and the current TOPIX advantage continued. Since financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31 will be in full swing from next week onwards, it will be a search centered on stocks announcing financial results, and it seems that investments that handle index systems such as the Nikkei Average and TOPIX can be refrained. We assume that both indices will clash across the 75-day moving average for a while.

In overseas time on the 26th, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar progressed to the 1 dollar = 158 yen range. The rate of change from the closing price level of 155 yen 30 yen on the 25th is about +1.7%. It has finally cleared the “previous day's closing price +1.2% depreciation of yen and dollar appreciation,” which is the level of “excessive rapid fluctuation” referred to in the market. Overall, I think it is a situation where it is OK to intervene in yen buying at any time. Japan has entered Golden Week, and since it is expected that the number of participants in the exchange market from next week to the beginning of next week will decrease, there is also a possibility that the Japanese authorities will intervene to buy yen with the aim of poor sales.

Meanwhile, at the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be held next week, there is a large probability that hawkish statements will be issued, so there is also a view that “there is no point in intervening with yen buying at the timing before the FOMC,” and it seems that the situation with a high sense of tension will continue in the exchange market. If the Tokyo Stock Market were to be open and yen buying intervention by the authorities was implemented, it is inevitable that the market would fluctuate. Be careful when managing positions such as margin trading.

■Exchange Market Outlook

Will there be solid price movements for the dollar and yen next week and the week after next? The tightening monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue, and the position of dollar preference is expected to continue. The dollar and yen surged before the weekend and rose to the 158 yen level. Statements about yen depreciation have continued from the government side, but since Bank of Japan Governor Ueda conveyed the view that “the current depreciation of the yen does not have a big impact on the underlying inflation rate,” market participants' sense of caution against exchange intervention declined.

Meanwhile, in response to continued US inflation, it is expected that the current monetary policy will be maintained at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held from 4/30 to 5/1. If important economic indicators in the US, such as the April US employment statistics, exceed market expectations, it is expected that risk-loving dollar buying/yen sales will continue.

■Notable schedule for next week and next week

4/29 (Monday): Domestic stock market closed due to public holidays (Showa Day), Europe/Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (April), German Consumer Price Index (April), etc.

4/30 (Tue): Effective Job Offer Ratio (March), Unemployment Rate (March), Industrial Production Index (March), China/Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Comprehensive PMI (April), China-Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April), Europe/Germany/GDP Preliminary Value (January-March), Europe/Eurozone Consumer Price Core Index (April), U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (until 5/1), US Amazon financial results, etc.

5/1 (Wednesday): US/ADP US Employment Report (April), US/ISM Manufacturing Business Condition Index (April), US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces policy interest rates, US Qualcomm financial results, etc.

5/2 (Thursday): Bank of Japan Policy Committee/Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (3/18/19), Australia Trade Balance (March), number of new US unemployment insurance claims (last week), US Apple financial results, etc.

5/3 (Friday): Domestic stock market closed due to public holidays (Constitution Day), number of people employed in the US non-farm sector (April), US unemployment rate (April), US average hourly wage (April), US ISM non-manufacturing business climate index (April), US Chicago Fed President participated in panel discussions, etc.

5/6 (Monday): The domestic stock market is closed due to a public holiday (substitute holiday), the China-Caixin Service Industry/Comprehensive PMI (April), the European Service Industry/Comprehensive PMI (April), the US/New York Fed President participated in discussions, etc.

5/7 (Tue): Nintendo financial results, the Reserve Bank of Australia (central bank) announces policy interest rates, Europe/Eurozone retail sales (March), US/consumer credit balance (March), US-Minneapolis Fed President participated in discussions, etc.

5/8 (Wed): Toyota financial results, German Industrial Production Index (March), US Federal Reserve Director Cook lectures, etc.

5/9 (Thursday): Monthly Labor Statistics - Total Cash Salaries (May), Main Opinions at Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (4/25 and 26), SoftBank Settlement, Bank of England (British Central Bank) announces policy interest rates, Central Bank of Mexico announces policy interest rates, etc.

5/10 (Friday): Household Spending (March), East Elec Financial Results, UK GDP Preliminary Report (January-March), US-Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index Bulletin (May), US-Chicago Federal Bank President Participates in Q&A Session Summary (April Meeting), etc.