Amidst financial market fluctuations, the price trend of gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has always been closely watched by investors. As a key measure of inflation, the Federal Reserve's Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index has a profound impact on the price of gold. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the gold market from the two dimensions of fundamental and technical analysis, and look forward to future trends.

I. Gold Market Overview

1. Gold price performance

Spot gold prices experienced significant fluctuations this week. The closing time was 2,338 US dollars/ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.3%, the biggest weekly decline since December last year. This change reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment and a sensitive response to economic data.

2. US PCE data impact

The US core PCE price index rose 2.8% per annum in March, higher than market expectations of 2.7%, indicating that inflationary pressure is still ongoing. As an inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, this change in PCE directly affects the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, putting short-term pressure on gold prices.

3. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

The market originally anticipated that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year, but better-than-expected PCE data may delay this expectation. The policy path of the Federal Reserve is a key influencing factor in the gold market, and any adjustment in the direction of interest rates may cause fluctuations in the price of gold.

II. Technical analysis and market sentiment

1. Short-term technical analysis

The price of gold shows an ascending channel trading pattern on the 60-minute chart. Analyst Nicholas Kitonyi pointed out that although the price of gold has declined somewhat, it remains above the 100-hour moving average, showing a certain degree of market resilience.

2. Support and resistance levels

Currently, the short-term support for the gold price is around $2,320 per ounce, while the resistance levels are at $2,350 per ounce and $2,363 per ounce. These technical levels will be the focus of traders' attention over the next few days.

3. Long-term technical analysis

On the daily chart, the price of gold also showed an upward channel pattern, but the fall in the RSI indicator on the 14th indicates that the market is getting rid of overbought status, which may indicate that the long-term upward trend in gold prices will face adjustment.

Other precious metals

Silver retreated as the gold/silver ratio remained above 85.50. Despite falling treasury yields, there was no support for the silver market in today's trading. Silver recently tried to stand firm at the $27.75 to $28.00 resistance level, but was unsuccessful. If silver falls below the $27.00 level, it will move towards the $26.00 to $26.30 support level.

Platinum retreated after failing to stabilize the recent resistance levels of $925 to $935. If it falls below the $910 level, it will push platinum to the psychologically critical level of $900.

III. Prospects for future trends

1. Fundamental factors

Fundamental support for gold remains, including global central banks' buying demand, investment interest in the Asian market, and continuing concerns about inflation. However, the gold market may experience a period of adjustment as investors begin to make profits.

2. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

The Federal Reserve's policy expectations will continue to be the dominant factor in the gold market. If subsequent economic data shows that inflation is still stubborn, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut may be further lowered, which will put pressure on the price of gold.

3. Technical analysis guidelines

Investors should pay close attention to the performance of gold prices at key technical levels, including the maintenance of an upward channel and changes in momentum indicators such as RSI. These may be signs of future price trends.

4. Changes in market sentiment

The impact of market sentiment and investor sentiment on gold prices cannot be ignored. In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to increase, thereby supporting its price.

Bart Melek (Bart Melek), global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities (TD Securities), said: “It's worth noting that traders are digesting data that continues to be better than expected, which is why gold has had a very limited response to today's rising inflation and data.” He said that once the US data is surprising?? Expected to fall, gold should attract investors' interest in the Western world — combined with China's absorption, “it would be reasonable” for the price of gold to move in the direction of $2,500 or more.

According to Jared Dillian (Jared Dillian), editor-in-chief of “No Confidence” and editor of “Daily Dirtnap,” commodities tend to peak after major geopolitical events, but don't ignore the 10% fluctuation in any direction that gold may occur, as the market has had the highest probability of “melting” since 1980. Gold will reach its peak, and this will happen at some point at $2,500. I'm watching the mood, and the mood is getting a little hot all the time. Gold traders, including me, are more bullish, and I think you'll see bullish sentiment dry up in the short term, followed by a price correction. The fundamentals of gold are as strong as cocoa. However, when it comes to gold, he is particularly concerned about the alarmingly high level of US debt.

The trend in the gold market is the result of a combination of multi-dimensional factors. When making investment decisions, investors need to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as the PCE price index, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and technical analysis, and pay close attention to market trends. At the same time, considering market uncertainty, investors should remain cautious and rationally evaluate market dynamics.