■Situation being shaken by US high-tech financial results

This week's Nikkei average rose 866.41 yen (+ 2.34%) to 37934.76 yen per week. The sharp depreciation of the yen continued, and a sense of caution against yen buying intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan led to buyer refraining. Prime market trading prices rose to close to 5 trillion yen over the weekend, but weak sales of around 4 trillion yen were conspicuous. Financial results announcements are in full swing in the US market, and the Tokyo market is also being swayed by financial results announcements for high-tech companies such as Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft.

The results of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting over the weekend were “maintaining the current state of monetary policy.” In the “Economic and Price Situation Outlook (Outlook Report),” the FY24 CPI was raised from +2.4% to +2.8%, the FY25 CPI was raised from +1.8% to +1.9%, and the FY26 CPI was set to +1.9%. Regarding policy management, as shown in the current outlook report, it has been concluded that if the underlying inflation rate rises towards around 2%, “the degree of monetary easing will be adjusted.” On top of that, they expressed the view that “I think an accommodative financial environment will continue for the time being.” The content was almost as expected by the market, and “hawkish” content suggesting additional interest rate increases could not be confirmed, so after the announcement, the market reacted by buying. There was a scene where the Nikkei Average recovered to the 38,000 yen level.

Note, according to trading trends by investor for the 3rd week of April, foreign investors oversold actual goods by 561.8 billion yen, oversold TOPIX futures by 242.4 billion yen, and 225 futures were oversold by 86.6 billion yen, resulting in a total oversale of 890.8 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors overbought the actual product by a total of 928.2 billion yen, such as overbuying the actual product by 875.2 billion yen. Furthermore, the trust slightly oversold the actual product to 4.1 billion yen.

■The Nikkei Average is in a fight just before the 75-day line

The US stock market rebounded on the 26th of this weekend. The Dow average closed at 38239.66 dollars, which was 153.86 dollars higher (+ 0.40%) than the previous day, the NASDAQ was 15927.90, 316.14 points higher (+ 2.03%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5099.96, which was 51.54 points higher (+ 1.02%). Taisen Night Exchange is 38350 yen, which is 450 yen higher than the regular transaction closing price.

The value of the Nikkei Average has returned to the 38177 yen level where the 75-day moving average is located. Meanwhile, TOPIX has been moving above the 75-day moving average throughout the week, and is more solid than the Nikkei Average. The Nikkei Average is highly influenced by the semiconductor stocks Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ and Advantest ＜6857＞, and the chart shape of Tokyo Electron is very similar to the Nikkei Average. The NT ratio, which expanded to 14.82 times on 3/4, shrank to 14.06 times on 4/22, and the current TOPIX advantage continued. Since financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31 will be in full swing from next week onwards, it will be a search centered on stocks announcing financial results, and it seems that investments that handle index systems such as the Nikkei Average and TOPIX can be refrained. We assume that both indices will clash across the 75-day moving average for a while.

■The exchange market is becoming increasingly wary of intervention

In overseas time on the 26th, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar progressed to the 1 dollar = 158 yen range. The rate of change from the closing price level of 155 yen 30 yen on the 25th is about +1.7%. It has finally cleared the “previous day's closing price +1.2% depreciation of yen and dollar appreciation,” which is the level of “excessive rapid fluctuation” referred to in the market. Overall, I think it is a situation where it is OK to intervene in yen buying at any time. Japan has entered Golden Week, and since it is expected that the number of participants in the exchange market from next week to the beginning of next week will decrease, there is also a possibility that the Japanese authorities will intervene to buy yen with the aim of poor sales.

Meanwhile, at the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be held next week, there is a large probability that hawkish statements will be issued, so there is also a view that “there is no point in intervening with yen buying at the timing before the FOMC,” and it seems that the situation with a high sense of tension will continue in the exchange market. If the Tokyo Stock Market were to be open and yen buying intervention by the authorities was implemented, it is inevitable that the market would fluctuate. Be careful when managing positions such as margin trading.

■FOMC announcement on 5/1

From next week to next week, domestically, March employment statistics, industrial production (preliminary value), April monetary base, consumer attitude index for 5/2, March business trend index (preliminary value) on 9th, March balance of payments, April business watcher survey, etc. are scheduled for 4/30.

Overseas, the Europe/April Eurozone Business Confidence Index for 4/29, the German/April Consumer Price Index (preliminary report), the Mid-April Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Business Index (PMI) on the 30th, the service industry PMI, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, Australia/March retail sales, German/April employment statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP, preliminary value) for the January-March period, the Europe/April Eurozone Consumer Price Index (preliminary report), the Europe/April Eurozone Consumer Price Index (preliminary report), the January-March employment cost index (preliminary report), the US January-March employment cost index Schiller House Prices (20 cities), April Chicago PMI, conference board consumer confidence index, number of US/April ADP employees on 5/1, number of US/4 ADP employees, March JOLTS job offers, April ISM manufacturing business climate index, FOMC announced policy interest rates, US and March trade balance, durable goods orders (confirmed value) on the 2nd, US/April employment statistics on the 3rd, ISM non-manufacturing business climate index, June 6th, Australia/Central Bank policy interest rate on the 9th, the Anglo/Central Bank policy interest rate on the 10th Substance GDP (preliminary figures), the US-May University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary figures), etc. are planned.