The Samko Timber Limited (SGX:E6R) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 50%. But the last month did very little to improve the 81% share price decline over the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, Samko Timber may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x, since almost half of all companies in the Forestry industry in Singapore have P/S ratios greater than 0.9x and even P/S higher than 3x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

How Samko Timber Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Samko Timber's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as Samko Timber's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 38%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 29% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we understand why Samko Timber's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Final Word

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Samko Timber's P/S close to the industry median. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

It's no surprise that Samko Timber maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that the share price will experience any significant movement in either direction in the near future if recent medium-term revenue trends persist.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Samko Timber (at least 4 which are a bit concerning), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Samko Timber, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.