It's been a good week for Lens Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300433) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.6% to CN¥13.97. Revenues of CN¥15b smashed analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings came up 44% short, at CN¥0.062 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Lens Technology from eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥72.3b in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 20% to CN¥0.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥60.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.80 in 2024. There's clearly been a surge in bullishness around the company's revenue pipeline, even if there's no real change in earnings per share forecasts.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of CN¥15.79, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Lens Technology's valuation in the near term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lens Technology at CN¥18.30 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥13.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Lens Technology shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Lens Technology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Lens Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Lens Technology going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Lens Technology that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.