Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited's (HKG:1788) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Guotai Junan International Holdings has been doing very well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Guotai Junan International Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 151% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 88% drop in EPS in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Guotai Junan International Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Guotai Junan International Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Guotai Junan International Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Guotai Junan International Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.