Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300142) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥600m) coming in 26% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.0088 fell 92% short. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Walvax Biotechnology's dual analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.13b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 200% to CN¥0.49. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥4.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.54 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥20.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Walvax Biotechnology's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 22% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Walvax Biotechnology is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Walvax Biotechnology. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Walvax Biotechnology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Walvax Biotechnology going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Walvax Biotechnology .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.