It's been a pretty great week for Trustmark Corporation (NASDAQ:TRMK) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to US$29.82 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$192m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Trustmark surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.68 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Trustmark from six analysts is for revenues of US$769.0m in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 3.8% to US$2.46 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$772.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.45 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$30.60. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trustmark at US$34.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$29.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Trustmark is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Trustmark's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Trustmark to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trustmark going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of Trustmark's balance sheet, and whether we think Trustmark is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.