BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.8% to US$82.17 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$649m were what the analysts expected, BioMarin Pharmaceutical surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.46 per share, an impressive 41% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BioMarin Pharmaceutical's 27 analysts is for revenues of US$2.75b in 2024. This reflects a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 66% to US$1.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.76b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.59 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$110, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BioMarin Pharmaceutical at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$80.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that BioMarin Pharmaceutical's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.3% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that BioMarin Pharmaceutical is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards BioMarin Pharmaceutical following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for BioMarin Pharmaceutical going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for BioMarin Pharmaceutical that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.