Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.8% to US$176 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$8.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$3.46, missing estimates by 5.4%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nucor after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Nucor provided consensus estimates of US$31.6b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a small 7.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 31% to US$12.18 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$32.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.82 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$202 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Nucor analyst has a price target of US$240 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$178. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 9.7% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Nucor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nucor. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$202, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nucor analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Nucor you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.