It's been a good week for Biogen Inc. (NASDAQ:BIIB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.3% to US$202. Biogen reported US$2.3b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.70 beat expectations, being 2.3% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Biogen's 31 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$9.52b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 64% to US$13.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.18 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$287, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Biogen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$350 and the most bearish at US$200 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Biogen shareholders.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 2.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 9.6% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Biogen is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$287, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Biogen going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Biogen that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.