With the business potentially at an important milestone, we thought we'd take a closer look at Geron Corporation's (NASDAQ:GERN) future prospects. Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. On 31 December 2023, the US$2.1b market-cap company posted a loss of US$184m for its most recent financial year. The most pressing concern for investors is Geron's path to profitability – when will it breakeven? We've put together a brief outline of industry analyst expectations for the company, its year of breakeven and its implied growth rate.

Consensus from 6 of the American Biotechs analysts is that Geron is on the verge of breakeven. They expect the company to post a final loss in 2025, before turning a profit of US$44m in 2026. Therefore, the company is expected to breakeven roughly 2 years from now. In order to meet this breakeven date, we calculated the rate at which the company must grow year-on-year. It turns out an average annual growth rate of 62% is expected, which signals high confidence from analysts. If this rate turns out to be too aggressive, the company may become profitable much later than analysts predict.

Underlying developments driving Geron's growth isn't the focus of this broad overview, but, bear in mind that typically a biotech has lumpy cash flows which are contingent on the product type and stage of development the company is in. This means that a high growth rate is not unusual, especially if the company is currently in an investment period.

One thing we'd like to point out is that The company has managed its capital prudently, with debt making up 33% of equity. This means that it has predominantly funded its operations from equity capital, and its low debt obligation reduces the risk around investing in the loss-making company.

Next Steps:

There are key fundamentals of Geron which are not covered in this article, but we must stress again that this is merely a basic overview. For a more comprehensive look at Geron, take a look at Geron's company page on Simply Wall St. We've also compiled a list of relevant factors you should further research:

1. Historical Track Record: What has Geron's performance been like over the past? Go into more detail in the past track record analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of our analysis for more clarity.
2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Geron's board and the CEO's background.
3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.