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Optimism for Pinnacle Financial Partners (NASDAQ:PNFP) Has Grown This Past Week, Despite One-year Decline in Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 26 06:09

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. For example, the Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ:PNFP) share price is up 53% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 22% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 9.6% in three years.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Pinnacle Financial Partners investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's one-year performance.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year, Pinnacle Financial Partners actually saw its earnings per share drop 4.0%.

We don't think that the decline in earnings per share is a good measure of the business over the last twelve months. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 1.1% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. However the year on year revenue growth of 6.1% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:PNFP Earnings and Revenue Growth April 26th 2024

Pinnacle Financial Partners is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for Pinnacle Financial Partners in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Pinnacle Financial Partners' TSR for the last 1 year was 55%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Pinnacle Financial Partners has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 55% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 8% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Pinnacle Financial Partners better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Pinnacle Financial Partners that you should be aware of.

We will like Pinnacle Financial Partners better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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