The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guangfa Securities released a research report saying that 24Q1Wind all fell 2.8%, the banking sector rose 10.8%, and the urban commercial banks rose 13.7%. The overall performance of the banking sector was significantly better than the entire market. The market chose urban commercial banks whose fundamentals are directly related to the decline in interest rates based on the logic of weak expectations and the decline in interest rates. However, reliance on financial market investment is a double-edged sword. A downturn in the economy (interest rates) will increase investment returns, while an increase in the economy (interest rates) will cause losses.
Judging from historical experience, when the economy shows signs of stabilization, the trend of interest rates on treasury bonds in the market will rebound. Since this improvement in economic data and prices mainly occur upstream and externally, when terminal demand gradually stabilizes, cost-driven inflation may occur. If the inflation trend reverses and interest rates begin to rise, generally speaking, recovery-related banks will benefit. As asset-side pricing rebounds and deposits are reactivated, it is recommended to pay attention to: Postbank (601658.SH), China Merchants Bank (600036.SH), and Bank of Ningbo (002142.SZ).
The share of banks allocated to public funds rebounded in 24Q1. As of the end of the 1st quarter of '24, the total market value of A-shares was 86.65 trillion yuan and the market value of free circulation was 33.23 trillion yuan, of which the banking sector had a market value of 7.94 trillion yuan (9.16%) and the market value of bank A-shares in free circulation was 2.34 trillion yuan (accounting for 7.03%).
At the end of 24Q1, the total market value of A-shares in the top ten active fund positions totaled 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.79% of the total market value of A-shares and 4.60% of the market value in free circulation. Among them, the banking sector allocated 38.1 billion yuan in the top ten heavy positions, accounting for 2.4% of total public fund holdings, a marginal recovery of 0.51 pct from the end of 23q4, and the allocation ratio rebounded to the 21.95% fraction (from low to high); the low-allocation banking sector was 4.17pct, at 51% of the past 10 years.
By type, the urban commercial banking sector with the most public offering positions performed best. At the end of 24Q1, the fund allocation ratios of major state-owned banks, stock banks, urban commercial banks, and agricultural commercial banks were 0.72%, 0.66%, 0.92%, and 0.12%, respectively. They changed +0.17pct, +0.15pct, +0.15pct, and +0.05pct from 23q4, respectively. Looking at the allocation ratio ranking at the end of 24Q1 (from low to high in the past 10 years): major state-owned banks rebounded to 54% (vs. 23q4:49%); stock banks rebounded to 10% (vs. .49%: 2%); urban commercial banks rebounded to 43% (vs. .2%: 24%); agricultural and commercial banks rebounded to 88% (vs. .24%: 73% quantile). Major state-owned banks, stock banks, urban commercial banks, and agricultural commercial banks rose and fell by +10.90%, +9.04%, +13.49%, and +9.91% respectively in 24Q1.
China Merchants Bank and major state-owned banks are the main lines for Q1 public funds to increase their positions. Q1 estimates that China Merchants Bank increased its positions by 797 million yuan, and the number of funds held increased by 68 over the previous month (to 193). In Q1, the five major banks that built diplomatic relations between workers and agriculture increased their holdings by a total of 1.24 billion yuan (the banking sector estimated an increase of 2,349 billion yuan).
Among them, ICBC estimated an increase of 365 million yuan in positions, an increase of 20 month-on-month in the number of funds held; CCB estimated an increase of 346 million yuan, and the number of funds held increased by 24 month-on-month.
Risk warning: (1) Deviations in shareholding data; (2) information on the top ten major stocks is not comprehensive enough, etc.