The Zhitong Finance App learned that on April 25, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles issued a document stating that according to China Customs statistics, in January-March, China exported a total of 33.82 billion US dollars of clothing (including clothing accessories, same below), an increase of 1.1% over the previous year. Clothing exports in January-February increased 12.7% year-on-year due to the low base for the same period last year. Exports in March were US$10.43 billion, down 17.9% year on year. The main reason for the large decline was the high base factor for the same period last year (backlog shipments were concentrated after the epidemic was liberalized in March last year, and exports surged 32.3% year on year). Compared with March of previous years, this year's export scale is still at a historically high level, up 25.1% from March 2019 before the pandemic.

China's clothing export situation in January-March

The export volume of clothing increased and the price fell

In January-March, knitwear exports were US$15.06 billion, up 3.2% year on year; export volume was 4.87 billion pieces, up 11.9%; export prices fell 7.8% year on year. Woven clothing exports were US$14.55 billion, down 0.6% year on year; export volume was 3.06 billion pieces, up 13.7% year on year; export prices fell 12.6% year on year. Exports of clothing accessories amounted to US$3.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The reason for the increase and decrease in export volume is that export prices increased significantly during the same period last year, leading to a high base; second, although demand in the international market has rebounded, it favors low-priced products; third, the share of cross-border e-commerce exports with lower unit prices has increased dramatically. Judging from the export situation in a single month in March, the export prices of knitted and woven clothing declined slowly, falling 2.8% and 5.7% respectively, but the export volume dropped significantly, falling 11.3% and 16.1%, respectively.

Underwear and apparel exports are growing faster

In January-March, exports of shirts, T-shirts, and underwear increased significantly. Exports of knitted T-shirts, shirts, underwear/pajamas, and corsets increased by 27.8%, 9.5%, 11.4%, and 9.8% respectively. Exports of outerwear showed a significant decline. Exports of coats/winter clothing and suits/casual wear suits fell by 18.3% and 9.7% respectively.

Exports to the US and EU increased, while exports to Japan declined

In January-March, China's exports to developed Western economies (the US, Canada, Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) amounted to 17.54 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Exports to the US were US$6.82 billion, up 1.9% year on year; accounting for 20.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. Exports to the EU were US$4.92 billion, up 0.9% year on year; accounting for 14.6%, the same as the same period last year. Exports to Japan amounted to US$2.86 billion, a decrease of 8.7%; accounting for 8.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. Exports to the United Kingdom, Canada, and Singapore were US$9.6, 5.2, and 740 million respectively, up 5.1%, 7.7%, and 4.2% respectively. Exports to Australia and South Korea were US$1.28 billion and 1.42 billion respectively, down 11.6% and 6.4% respectively.

Exports to major emerging markets such as Central Asia and ASEAN have all maintained relatively rapid growth. In January-March, exports to the “Belt and Road” countries were US$15.22 billion, an increase of 2.8% over the previous year; accounting for 45%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points. Exports to ASEAN reached US$3.86 billion, up 6% year on year; accounting for 11.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, of which exports to Vietnam increased by 11.5%. Exports to the five Central Asian countries reached US$2.72 billion, a sharp increase of 27%. Among them, exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased by 93.6% and 23%, respectively. Exports to Russia amounted to US$750 million, an increase of 0.8%. Exports to Africa amounted to US$1.92 billion, down 7.9% year on year. Exports to Latin America were $2.12 billion, down 3.6% year on year. Exports to the six GCC countries were US$1.23 billion, down 4.3% year on year.

Exports from the central and western regions are growing faster

From January to March, exports from “five provinces and one city” in the east showed an increasing trend, with the exception of Guangdong and Shanghai. Exports from Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Fujian increased by 4.5%, 3.9%, 10.2%, and 2.7%, respectively. Exports from Guangdong and Shanghai fell by 12.1% and 4.2% year on year. The eastern “five provinces and one city” together accounted for 75.2% of the country, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. Exports from 20 central and western provinces and cities increased by a total of 4.5%, accounting for 21.2% of total exports, an increase of 0.7 percentage points. Among them, exports from Xinjiang, Hubei, and Guangxi surged 38.5%, 58.8%, and 52.8% respectively.

China's share of the US and EU markets has rebounded

In January-February, our clothing accounted for 23% of the US import market, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous year; the share of the European Union was 27.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points; the share of Japan was 47.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points; the share of the United Kingdom was 24.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the share of Australia was 61.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points; and the share of Canada was 28.6%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points. Furthermore, the market share in South Korea and Switzerland increased, accounting for 30.1% of South Korea's share, an increase of 1.9 percentage points; the share of Swiss imports was 27.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points.

International market conditions

Imports to developed country markets generally declined

In January-February, clothing imports from developed economies such as the US, Canada, Europe, Britain, and Japan continued to weaken, while imports from Australia and South Korea increased slightly. In January-February, US clothing imports amounted to US$14.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. EU imports amounted to US$14.32 billion, down 14.3% year on year. The UK imported $3.01 billion, down 15.1%. Canada imported $1.74 billion, down 13.6%. Japan imported $4.09 billion, down 1.1%. Australia imported $1.63 billion, up 1.3%. South Korea imported $2.12 billion, up 0.9% year over year.

US clothing imports in a single month showed negative growth for 16 consecutive months. In February of this year, imported clothing from the US resumed positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.

Exports from Vietnam and Bangladesh resume growth

According to data from Vietnam's General Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam's textile and garment exports increased 7.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. According to data from the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), in January-February, Bangladesh exported US$9.47 billion of ready-to-wear clothing, an increase of 13.2% over the previous year. In January, India exported 1.51 billion US dollars, down 3% year on year; Turkey exported 1.41 billion US dollars of clothing, down 9.8% year on year. In January-February, Indonesia exported 1.46 billion US dollars of clothing, an increase of 4.4% over the previous year.

Trend outlook

There is still great uncertainty about the global economic recovery in 2024. First, external demand has improved to a limited extent, and growth is expected to slow down. Recently, the WTO released a global trade outlook and statistical report. Among them, the growth rate of goods trade volume in 2024 was lowered to 2.6%, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than the forecast for October last year. Second, the risk of geopolitical conflicts has increased. The third is the global “super election year,” which also brought about many variables.

US consumer demand is picking up

The US CPI increased 3.5% year on year in March, the highest level since September 2023. In March, the US consumer confidence index increased 3.3% month-on-month to 79.4. The situation remained stable during the first quarter of this year. According to data from the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in the US increased 0.7% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year in March. Specifically, retail sales of online products were US$122.97 billion, up 2.7% month-on-month, and 11.3% higher than the same period last year. The retail sales of clothing and apparel stores were US$26.04 billion, down 1.6% from the previous year, and up 1.4% from the same period last year. According to US media analysis, the March retail sales data shows that in the current situation of high inflation and high interest rates, US consumer demand is still strong. The strong labor market and rising wages have boosted people's consumption, and it also shows that the US economy is still resilient.

Eurozone consumption performance is weak

Eurozone inflation was 2.4% in March, down 0.2 percentage points from February. Eurozone CPI increased 6.9% year over year in March, down from 8.5% in February. According to the latest Eurostat data, the retail sales index of the 19 Eurozone countries grew at a year-on-year rate of -0.7% in February. Although it rebounded slightly by 0.2 percentage points from January, it has been in a negative growth range for 17 consecutive months.

Japan's consumer spending continues to fall

According to the February household income and expenditure survey results recently announced by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the average consumption expenditure of households with 2 or more people was 279,868 yen (approximately RMB 13,400). In fact, it was a 0.5% decrease from the same period last year, decreasing for 12 consecutive months. It can be seen that the continued rise in prices has heated up people's desire to save. According to adjusted data from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, retail sales in Japan increased 4.6% year-on-year in February. In January-February, retail sales of textiles and apparel in Japan totaled 1.25 trillion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%.

Looking at the overall trend, clothing exports started relatively steadily in the first quarter of this year, but currently the garment export industry is still under pressure, uncertainty in the external environment is rising, and the recovery momentum of external demand has not yet stabilized. The industry still needs to further accelerate transformation and upgrading and global supply chain layout, cultivate new momentum for foreign trade development, and achieve basic stability in international market share.