The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies STO Express Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002468) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

What Is STO ExpressLtd's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 STO ExpressLtd had debt of CN¥6.48b, up from CN¥5.41b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥2.92b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥3.56b.

How Strong Is STO ExpressLtd's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that STO ExpressLtd had liabilities of CN¥10.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥3.91b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥2.92b as well as receivables valued at CN¥901.4m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥11.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥13.9b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

STO ExpressLtd's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.8 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 1k times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. If STO ExpressLtd can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 17% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if STO ExpressLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, STO ExpressLtd saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

Neither STO ExpressLtd's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that STO ExpressLtd is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in STO ExpressLtd, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.