Despite an already strong run, Modern Dental Group Limited (HKG:3600) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 98%.
After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 9x, you may consider Modern Dental Group as a stock to potentially avoid with its 11.6x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Modern Dental Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Modern Dental Group's Growth Trending?
Modern Dental Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 84% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 281% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the two analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 15% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 15% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that Modern Dental Group is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
The large bounce in Modern Dental Group's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Modern Dental Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Modern Dental Group, and understanding should be part of your investment process.
You might be able to find a better investment than Modern Dental Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.