When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 22.7x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for Alaska Air Group as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Alaska Air Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 315%. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 54% each year during the coming three years according to the ten analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why Alaska Air Group is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Bottom Line On Alaska Air Group's P/E
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Alaska Air Group maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Alaska Air Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Alaska Air Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.