PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. PulteGroup delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$3.9b-10% above indicated-andUS$3.10-31% above forecasts- respectively Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from PulteGroup's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$17.2b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$12.99, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$16.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.87 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on PulteGroup's earnings potential following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$131, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PulteGroup at US$183 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$105. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the PulteGroup's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that PulteGroup's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 91 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while PulteGroup's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PulteGroup's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PulteGroup going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for PulteGroup that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.