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Earnings Growth of 3.6% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for ORG TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002701) Shareholders

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 24 20:36

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. In contrast individual stocks will provide a wide range of possible returns, and may fall short. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term ORG Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002701) shareholders, since the share price is down 25% in the last three years, less than the market decline of around 19%.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, ORG TechnologyLtd actually managed to grow EPS by 11% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 5.9% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating ORG TechnologyLtd further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002701 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 25th 2024

We know that ORG TechnologyLtd has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for ORG TechnologyLtd in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of ORG TechnologyLtd, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that ORG TechnologyLtd returned a loss of 4.3% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 14%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 1.6% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ORG TechnologyLtd better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ORG TechnologyLtd you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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