Last week, you might have seen that Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000983) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to CN¥10.53 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥56b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.9% to hit CN¥1.23 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group's six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CN¥55.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 10% to CN¥1.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥56.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.55 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 12% to CN¥11.42, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group at CN¥13.30 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥9.53. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.