Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (HKG:2289) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 40% share price jump in the last month. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 90%.
After such a large jump in price, Charmacy Pharmaceutical may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28.8x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For instance, Charmacy Pharmaceutical's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Charmacy Pharmaceutical's Growth Trending?
Charmacy Pharmaceutical's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 43% decrease to the company's bottom line. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 27% in total. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it concerning that Charmacy Pharmaceutical is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Charmacy Pharmaceutical's P/E
Shares in Charmacy Pharmaceutical have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Charmacy Pharmaceutical revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Charmacy Pharmaceutical (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.