Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, ESCO Technologies fair value estimate is US$96.49
- Current share price of US$105 suggests ESCO Technologies is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Our fair value estimate is 20% lower than ESCO Technologies' analyst price target of US$121
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of ESCO Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ESE) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$100.7m | US$111.3m | US$119.2m | US$125.9m | US$131.8m | US$137.0m | US$141.7m | US$146.1m | US$150.2m | US$154.3m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 7.11% | Est @ 5.66% | Est @ 4.65% | Est @ 3.94% | Est @ 3.45% | Est @ 3.10% | Est @ 2.86% | Est @ 2.69% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$93.9 | US$96.8 | US$96.7 | US$95.3 | US$93.0 | US$90.2 | US$87.0 | US$83.6 | US$80.2 | US$76.9 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$894m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$154m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.3%) = US$3.2b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.2b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$1.6b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$105, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ESCO Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.071. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for ESCO Technologies
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Balance sheet summary for ESE.
- Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Machinery industry.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for ESE?
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For ESCO Technologies, we've compiled three relevant elements you should assess:
- Financial Health: Does ESE have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ESE's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.