It's been a pretty great week for Globe Life Inc. (NYSE:GL) shareholders, with its shares surging 20% to US$75.76 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$1.4b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.67, missing estimates by 2.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Globe Life's seven analysts is for revenues of US$5.81b in 2024. This reflects an okay 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 7.7% to US$11.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.46 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target fell 5.7% to US$120, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Globe Life analyst has a price target of US$160 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$80.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Globe Life's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.5% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Globe Life is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Globe Life going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Globe Life (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.